Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:One thing though about police reform and progressive and “woke” policies is that (and I have no evidence of this and it’s completely my speculation) I think crime increasing is less directly in response to it, knowing the education level of most average criminals, are they really watching or reading the news? I hardly think that a gang or any random 20 year old, unemployed or underemployed poorly educated male is sitting here reading the Washington Post thinking, oh, Elrich and Jawando and Mink are elected? They’re defunding the police? Oh yeah nows my chance to go steal a car and stab somebody!

I think criminals absolutely learn that other criminals committed crimes and didn't face any real consequences when caught. And I also think they are smart enough to figure out where they're more likely to be successful. For example, why are there suddenly so many carjackings by teens in MD and DC -- it's because they understand that many such crimes have been committed and the criminals just end up back on the street (if they are caught at all).

This. They may no be reading the Post, but they do know that someone in their neighborhood committed a crime; had nothing happen; and then they learn about the level of enforcement.

The majority of criminals committing these types of crimes fall into a certain demographic, and they tend to hang around with similar people, so the information sharing is there.

Anonymous wrote:One thing though about police reform and progressive and “woke” policies is that (and I have no evidence of this and it’s completely my speculation) I think crime increasing is less directly in response to it, knowing the education level of most average criminals, are they really watching or reading the news? I hardly think that a gang or any random 20 year old, unemployed or underemployed poorly educated male is sitting here reading the Washington Post thinking, oh, Elrich and Jawando and Mink are elected? They’re defunding the police? Oh yeah nows my chance to go steal a car and stab somebody!

I think criminals absolutely learn that other criminals committed crimes and didn't face any real consequences when caught. And I also think they are smart enough to figure out where they're more likely to be successful. For example, why are there suddenly so many carjackings by teens in MD and DC -- it's because they understand that many such crimes have been committed and the criminals just end up back on the street (if they are caught at all).

One thing though about police reform and progressive and “woke” policies is that (and I have no evidence of this and it’s completely my speculation) I think crime increasing is less directly in response to it, knowing the education level of most average criminals, are they really watching or reading the news? I hardly think that a gang or any random 20 year old, unemployed or underemployed poorly educated male is sitting here reading the Washington Post thinking, oh, Elrich and Jawando and Mink are elected? They’re defunding the police? Oh yeah nows my chance to go steal a car and stab somebody!

^^ wow this is really insightful. Tough pills to swallow for progressives and I am a progressive.

criminologist here.

Certain types of violent crime, like shootings, robberies (including carjackings), aggravated assaults have increased.

There are a variety of reasons, and it takes years to truly figure out underlying causes.

The best guesses right now are:
1) historic increase in the number of firearms on the streets. Purchases went through the roof during COVID and they get stolen faster, and therefore often used for crime more quickly, than in years past. The theory is a lot of first time firearms owners out there never secured guns properly. Many get stolen out of cars.
2) More relaxed policing since George Floyd. Many policies favor suspects in an effort to not overcriminalize people of color. Laudible, but most victims of violent crime are also people of color, and they are now getting victimized more. There is a happy medium. We have not hit it yet.
3) Fewer police on the streets. A huge portion of police were hired in the 90s when crime was at its height and they have reached retirement eligibility. If a jurisdiction doesn't make it desirable to stay, they are retiring and often moving to other more desirable jurisdictions.
4) Tons of mandated police reform changes in Maryland, including a significant weakening of juvenile justice laws, has overtaxed police departments. If they can't question juveniles about a gun store robbery, because the new state law requires that juveniles consult with attorneys before talking to police, those stolen guns just stay on the streets. If new use of force laws make it more difficult to take someone into custody and officers risk getting hurt more often, they sometimes don't follow through on the arrest, and the perpetrator is left on the streets.
5) Bleed-over of crime from DC mostly, and to some extent Prince George's County. A large portion of arrests are of people who live outside the county.

If you have seen more police presence, I assume you are talking about Silver Spring. I don't think any of the rest of the county has increased presence with 130 officers down, and many officers rejecting overtime opportunities. All the municipal police departments are understaffed too.

What is Elrich's role? He is in charge of the Executive branch, so he's ultimately responsible for all successes and all failures. He has "not" supported police during his first term. I think his tune is changing though. George Floyd's murder coincided with an extended period of very low crime. And it was easy to just see police as the biggest problem out there, and treat them as such. And many policy makers have no clue how much the presence of well-trained police officers helps keep communities safe. You need to make sure they are well trained, and act honestly and safely, and they need to be held accountable for any wrongs they do. But they have to be there. I think progressive policy makers are starting to realize that.