Look at it the other way. Longfellow got somewhere around 30 students admitted from the general pool. Some of these schools admitted zero students. It seems there is a decent chance that the lowest ranked kid at these schools who were admitted would be ranked lower than students in the general pool. The question is whether they would be ranked lower than the students who don't get in from Longfellow, Carson, Cooper, Frost, Rocky Run, etc.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DC is a rising 7th grader, will be in Algebra 1 and is generally a strong student. He will apply for TJ but if not accepted then he will be equally happy at McLean HS as well.

I am just trying to gauge realistic chances, I googled and it said 62 kids but then on this board someone mentioned 42, I would appreciate if someone can share the correct number. TIA!

Seems like Longfellow kids have some of the best odds of any school!

No... quite literally the exact opposite. If one takes a randomly chosen applicant from the FCPS pool, applying from Longfellow is one of the worst odds as there is a very, very small chance the applicant would fall in the top 1.5%. Take a randomly chosen applicant and send them from Poe MS, then there is a higher probability that they would fall into the top 1.5% of reserved seats.

You do realize that way more than 1.5% are accepted from Longfellow, don't you? Look at the above numbers.. at least 42 (or 62) were accepted from Longfellow, vastly more than 1.5%! The percentage acceptance rates are definitely one of the strongest indicators; there's a reason housing prices near the school (and its elementary school neighbor) are annoyingly expensive.

The post above says 37 students were accepted from Longfellow last year. This means the 38th highest ranked did not get in(excluding those who turned down a spot). It is possible this student and some more Longfellow students would be in the top 1.5% at some other schools.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DC is a rising 7th grader, will be in Algebra 1 and is generally a strong student. He will apply for TJ but if not accepted then he will be equally happy at McLean HS as well.

I am just trying to gauge realistic chances, I googled and it said 62 kids but then on this board someone mentioned 42, I would appreciate if someone can share the correct number. TIA!

Seems like Longfellow kids have some of the best odds of any school!

No... quite literally the exact opposite. If one takes a randomly chosen applicant from the FCPS pool, applying from Longfellow is one of the worst odds as there is a very, very small chance the applicant would fall in the top 1.5%. Take a randomly chosen applicant and send them from Poe MS, then there is a higher probability that they would fall into the top 1.5% of reserved seats.

The odds of getting into TJ from Longfellow were higher than from any other AAP center with a substantial number of TJ applicants, at least last year, as the prior post indicates.

There are some middle schools that only had a limited number of applicants to TJ in the Class of 2026. Schools with less than 20 applicants included Stone (11), Whitman (13), Herndon (15), Liberty (16), and Poe (17). So, depending on the number of kids at those schools who ended up admitted to TJ, either based on the 1.5% set aside or from the residual pool, the admissions rate from some of those schools likely was higher than the rate at Longfellow (26.2%). But then, if you don't get into TJ, you don't have McLean as your back-up option.

Just to illustrate, based on the number of 8th graders at various middle schools last year, and under the 1.5% set-aside formula alone:

Stone would get at least 6 seats, which means the admit rate last year was at least 54.5%.

Whitman would get at least 6 seats, which means the admit rate last year was at least 46.2%.

Herndon would get at least 8 seats, which means the admit rate last year was at least 53.3%.

Liberty would get at least 8 seats, which means the admit rate last year was at least 50%.

Poe would get at least 5 seats, which means the admit rate last year was at least 29.4%.

So the new process, combined with the low number of applicants from some middle schools, could lead some TJ chasers to avoid the big AAP middle centers and send their kids to schools that aren't AAP centers to improve their TJ odds. At some point, there should be a new equilibrium, given that people are still looking at the recent admissions data and also figuring out what types of trade-offs they are prepared to make.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DC is a rising 7th grader, will be in Algebra 1 and is generally a strong student. He will apply for TJ but if not accepted then he will be equally happy at McLean HS as well.

I am just trying to gauge realistic chances, I googled and it said 62 kids but then on this board someone mentioned 42, I would appreciate if someone can share the correct number. TIA!

Seems like Longfellow kids have some of the best odds of any school!

No... quite literally the exact opposite. If one takes a randomly chosen applicant from the FCPS pool, applying from Longfellow is one of the worst odds as there is a very, very small chance the applicant would fall in the top 1.5%. Take a randomly chosen applicant and send them from Poe MS, then there is a higher probability that they would fall into the top 1.5% of reserved seats.

The odds of getting into TJ from Longfellow were higher than from any other AAP center with a substantial number of TJ applicants, at least last year, as the prior post indicates.

There are some middle schools that only had a limited number of applicants to TJ in the Class of 2026. Schools with less than 20 applicants included Stone (11), Whitman (13), Herndon (15), Liberty (16), and Poe (17). So, depending on the number of kids at those schools who ended up admitted to TJ, either based on the 1.5% set aside or from the residual pool, the admissions rate from some of those schools likely was higher than the rate at Longfellow (26.2%). But then, if you don't get into TJ, you don't have McLean as your back-up option.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DC is a rising 7th grader, will be in Algebra 1 and is generally a strong student. He will apply for TJ but if not accepted then he will be equally happy at McLean HS as well.

I am just trying to gauge realistic chances, I googled and it said 62 kids but then on this board someone mentioned 42, I would appreciate if someone can share the correct number. TIA!

Seems like Longfellow kids have some of the best odds of any school!

No... quite literally the exact opposite. If one takes a randomly chosen applicant from the FCPS pool, applying from Longfellow is one of the worst odds as there is a very, very small chance the applicant would fall in the top 1.5%. Take a randomly chosen applicant and send them from Poe MS, then there is a higher probability that they would fall into the top 1.5% of reserved seats.

You do realize that way more than 1.5% are accepted from Longfellow, don't you? Look at the above numbers.. at least 42 (or 62) were accepted from Longfellow, vastly more than 1.5%! The percentage acceptance rates are definitely one of the strongest indicators; there's a reason housing prices near the school (and its elementary school neighbor) are annoyingly expensive.

Anonymous wrote:Because FCPS invokes exceptions to the Virginia Freedom of Information Act to shield certain information from disclosure, one can only determine the admissions rates to TJ for those middle schools where there were 10 or more students accepted. Of those 10 middle schools, the acceptance rates for the Class of 2026 were as follows:

Longfellow 26.2%
Carson 23.3%
Frost 23.3%
Rocky Run 22.6%
Sandburg 22.2%
Glasgow 21.3%
Twain 21.1%
Lake Braddock 17.8%
Cooper 17.4%
Kilmer 12.6%

Man... what happened to Kilmer in the last couple of years?? It used to be up there.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DC is a rising 7th grader, will be in Algebra 1 and is generally a strong student. He will apply for TJ but if not accepted then he will be equally happy at McLean HS as well.

I am just trying to gauge realistic chances, I googled and it said 62 kids but then on this board someone mentioned 42, I would appreciate if someone can share the correct number. TIA!

Seems like Longfellow kids have some of the best odds of any school!

No... quite literally the exact opposite. If one takes a randomly chosen applicant from the FCPS pool, applying from Longfellow is one of the worst odds as there is a very, very small chance the applicant would fall in the top 1.5%. Take a randomly chosen applicant and send them from Poe MS, then there is a higher probability that they would fall into the top 1.5% of reserved seats.

Anonymous wrote:Because FCPS invokes exceptions to the Virginia Freedom of Information Act to shield certain information from disclosure, one can only determine the admissions rates to TJ for those middle schools where there were 10 or more students accepted. Of those 10 middle schools, the acceptance rates for the Class of 2026 were as follows:

Longfellow 26.2%
Carson 23.3%
Frost 23.3%
Rocky Run 22.6%
Sandburg 22.2%
Glasgow 21.3%
Twain 21.1%
Lake Braddock 17.8%
Cooper 17.4%
Kilmer 12.6%

Are there numbers for schools in Loudoun or Prince William?

Because FCPS invokes exceptions to the Virginia Freedom of Information Act to shield certain information from disclosure, one can only determine the admissions rates to TJ for those middle schools where there were 10 or more students accepted. Of those 10 middle schools, the acceptance rates for the Class of 2026 were as follows:

Longfellow 26.2%
Carson 23.3%
Frost 23.3%
Rocky Run 22.6%
Sandburg 22.2%
Glasgow 21.3%
Twain 21.1%
Lake Braddock 17.8%
Cooper 17.4%
Kilmer 12.6%

Also, for reference, while more students were admitted to TJ from Carson MS for the Class of 2026 (50), Carson has a larger AAP center and more applicants to TJ. The admissions rate from Carson for the Class of 2026 was slightly lower than for Longfellow (23.3% vs. 26.2%).

There have been two classes admitted to TJ under the new admissions process.

For the Class of 2025 (current sophomores), 149 kids applied from Longfellow and 28 were accepted. Source: https://www.fcag.org/tjstatistics.shtml

For the Class of 2026 (current freshmen), 141 kids applied from Longfellow and 37 were accepted. Sources: https://www.fcps.edu/news/thomas-jefferson-high-school-continues-increase-access-all (and a private FOIA request).

You should assume there is self-selection among Longfellow students in deciding whether to apply to TJ, but the acceptance rates for the Classes of 2025 and 2026 were 18.8% and 26.2%, respectively.

I don't know but also make sure you're comparing apples-to-apples on admits vs. enrolled... e.g. could be 62 admitted, 42 enrolled (though I suspect the acceptance rate is higher than 2/3 so that's probably not the full explanation here)

Anonymous wrote:DC is a rising 7th grader, will be in Algebra 1 and is generally a strong student. He will apply for TJ but if not accepted then he will be equally happy at McLean HS as well.

I am just trying to gauge realistic chances, I googled and it said 62 kids but then on this board someone mentioned 42, I would appreciate if someone can share the correct number. TIA!

If he would be equally happy at McLean, he him go there. The commute slog is not worth it if TJ does not provide something better for him.

Anonymous wrote:DC is a rising 7th grader, will be in Algebra 1 and is generally a strong student. He will apply for TJ but if not accepted then he will be equally happy at McLean HS as well.

I am just trying to gauge realistic chances, I googled and it said 62 kids but then on this board someone mentioned 42, I would appreciate if someone can share the correct number. TIA!

Seems like Longfellow kids have some of the best odds of any school!

DC is a rising 7th grader, will be in Algebra 1 and is generally a strong student. He will apply for TJ but if not accepted then he will be equally happy at McLean HS as well.

I am just trying to gauge realistic chances, I googled and it said 62 kids but then on this board someone mentioned 42, I would appreciate if someone can share the correct number. TIA!