Anonymous wrote:As a federal employee- what has DC done for me?! Made it easy to get to work? Nope, metro is bad, parking is bad, traffic is bad. Made it nice to eat lunch outside? No, the park next to my federal office has needles, homeless people sleeping on benches and pee everywhere.

Even before telework was a thing, people were begging to work in our suburban offices instead of DC.

THANK YOU

Seems like there are a lot of people who would be, or think they would be, happier living somewhere else.

As a federal employee- what has DC done for me?! Made it easy to get to work? Nope, metro is bad, parking is bad, traffic is bad. Made it nice to eat lunch outside? No, the park next to my federal office has needles, homeless people sleeping on benches and pee everywhere.

Even before telework was a thing, people were begging to work in our suburban offices instead of DC.

Anonymous wrote:Sorry DC, I buy lunch and spend money in my suburb now. Why don't you attract in-office finance firms or more big law?

You are not alone. For example:

Sales tax collection in Montgomery County is almost 50% over pre-COVID levels.

Sales tax collection in DC has still not recovered to pre-COVID levels.

Anonymous wrote:This isn't an issue unique to DC. Every city now has more teleworking folks than before. The issue is that DC has terrible traffic, terrible crime, terrible public transportation, and a terrible homeless problem, so lots of people have no desire to come into DC unless forced to do so for work reasons.

The difference in DC is that instead of trying to find solutions, the city thinks the Federal government should solve the problem for them. What does the Federal government owe to NYC, LA, SF? Why didn’t DC apply foresight to use their Federal COVID funds and one-time surplus to make strategic investments to address the obvious until it’s now nearing a crisis and the days of free and even cheap money are over.

Imagine if they spent some of those free billions given to them by the Federal government to acquire distressed commercial properties and collaborate with developers to convert them to residential with deeply affordable housing?

Instead they have dropped millions on new social programs and free bus service. Choices have consequences and to turn around after all of that profligacy of stimulus funds to turn around and put it on Federal workers and all American tax payers to solve DCs fiscal problems rightly should draw little sympathy.

Sorry DC, I buy lunch and spend money in my suburb now. Why don't you attract in-office finance firms or more big law?

This isn't an issue unique to DC. Every city now has more teleworking folks than before. The issue is that DC has terrible traffic, terrible crime, terrible public transportation, and a terrible homeless problem, so lots of people have no desire to come into DC unless forced to do so for work reasons.

Anonymous wrote:A bunch of GS 12s getting lunch a few times a week wasn't propping up the economy. DC needs big law and lobbyists working in the office and spending money in the city

Great insight. You should become and economist. You have a firm grasp of both the local economy and federal leasing.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:A bunch of GS 12s getting lunch a few times a week wasn't propping up the economy. DC needs big law and lobbyists working in the office and spending money in the city

I think it needs both. I think you underestimate the sheer volume of federal workers who commuted into the city daily pre-Covid, and how much money they spent in the city. There were entire businesses that relied on selling modestly priced meals to low and midlevel government workers, and many of those businesses are gone now. That has a huge impact on those landlords, plus all the empty storefronts makes it a less attractive area for other tenants. It has a domino effect.

The multipliers for DC tax revenues are extensive.

200,000 people spending $10 per day = $2,000,000 per day in revenue for businesses.

That supports $200,000 per day in sales tax. Plus business taxes. Plus commercial property taxes.

Anonymous wrote:I feel pretty resentful about the federal shift to telework without any plan in place for how this will impact DC's economy. The federal properties in downtown DC have always been a liability because they don't pay taxes to the city, but the flip side was that it was a steady and reliably workforce that came into the city daily and spent money, creating an entire support economy around them.

The problem here that you, and DC leaders as well, think the Federal government and Federal workers only exist to benefit the DC economy.

Anonymous wrote:A bunch of GS 12s getting lunch a few times a week wasn't propping up the economy. DC needs big law and lobbyists working in the office and spending money in the city

Even though law firms are only at 50% capacity, the restaurants and particularly the fancy restaurants are doing fine. So that is obviously not the issue.

The issue is that everyone is abandoning Metro Center. All of the big law firms have already moved out and are primarily now located in new Class A space around the West End/M St/DuPont. One of the most prestigious law firms in the city that was located on top of the Metro Center Metro for decades moved to the Wharf, which caused the owner of the building to default.

Commercial office vacancies in that core zone around Metro Center/McPherson Sq is now around 20%.

I think the point that people miss is that COVID has just accelerated a lot of pre-existing trends. Metro Center has been in decline for years. It turns out that there was not unlimited demand for commercial office space in the DMV and it’s surprising that the city has been caught off-guard that filtering is going on and the older, Class C spaces in the core CBD are being abandoned for new spaces with more amenities in more convenient locations, including the suburbs.

It’s easy to blame COVID and remote work, but this is mostly an easily foreseeable issue that DC was completely caught off guard for due mostly in my view to arrogance. Consider for example that they were actively promoting more office space to be built at the McMillan Reservoir and RFK while fantasizing about hundreds of thousands of new residents while population growth was stuttering beginning in 2015.

Total shambles and frankly downtown is probably doomed for the next decade or longer. Whatever time period it will take for these 50s/60s buildings to get sufficiently devalued and the neighborhood blighted such that they can be torn down and replaced with something else. And I’m not sure how housing is the answer if living downtown is supposed to compete for residents with the upzoning of Ward 3 under the new Comp Plan.

It’s such folly. Just proves that they should never listen to those GGW clowns because they have been completely wrong about everything. Just look at the massive waste the streetcar has been, which was one of their very first campaigns.

Anonymous wrote:A bunch of GS 12s getting lunch a few times a week wasn't propping up the economy. DC needs big law and lobbyists working in the office and spending money in the city

I think it needs both. I think you underestimate the sheer volume of federal workers who commuted into the city daily pre-Covid, and how much money they spent in the city. There were entire businesses that relied on selling modestly priced meals to low and midlevel government workers, and many of those businesses are gone now. That has a huge impact on those landlords, plus all the empty storefronts makes it a less attractive area for other tenants. It has a domino effect.

The decline in in-person law/lobbying/consulting downtown also has a major impact on retail and higher end food service, but believe it or not a lot of the Big Law offices downtown are more full than you think. However, when people are in the office 2-3 days a week instead of 5, they also spend less on the days they are in the office. Because they can focus their errands on days when they work from home. They also may be leaving the office earlier than they used to as face time requirements have declined, resulting in fewer dinners and drinks in the city.

The economy needs both. At least the economy we had downtown as of 2019. But we're not getting it back like before -- we're in triage now.

I feel pretty resentful about the federal shift to telework without any plan in place for how this will impact DC's economy. The federal properties in downtown DC have always been a liability because they don't pay taxes to the city, but the flip side was that it was a steady and reliably workforce that came into the city daily and spent money, creating an entire support economy around them.

But if those office buildings are empty, it's a massive burden. I support Bowser's initiative to try and force the feds to convert those buildings because just leaving them empty indefinitely will strangle the city. It's not a real option, but the federal government is going to move as slowly as possible to do anything about it because that's their whole deal.

I also think it's shortsighted because while I'm a huge supporter of flexible and remote work, I think some agencies and departments are going to discover that they need more face time than they are currently mandating. But the city can't sit around waiting for them to figure that out. Ideally I think each office would reconceive their office structure in a way that requires a certain amount of face time but allows workers a lot of freedom in arranging it. But again, it's the feds, they are terrible at this kind of pivot, it won't happen quickly enough to save downtown. So I support Bowser and anyone else who wants to force the feds to either put those buildings to use or sell/convert them. We can't have half the commercial district sitting empty and still have a function retail/restaurant economy. It will not work.

A bunch of GS 12s getting lunch a few times a week wasn't propping up the economy. DC needs big law and lobbyists working in the office and spending money in the city

Anyone have insight into long term projections for the city’s economy?

Telework seems here to stay. I hear the fed gov might not renew leases when they expire. Bowser grasps this and there is a push to convert office space downtown to more residential.

I think that’s overly ambitious in that it’s be try expensive to convert, plus on some of these buildings not sure how easily you can like repurpose them.

I hope dc isn’t fked economically like Detroit in a few years. What is going to buoy us? Telework seems likely to harshly impact the city’s coffers. We have a pretty progressive city council. What’s their tack? Raise taxes? I hear they won’t raise property taxes, but like what happens when the budget shortfalls begin? All the paid family leave and programs and stuff.