I am not sure how this kind of strategy will work.

- How do you know for sure how many kids will ED one school unless you are the school counselor? Even if your school counselor tells you some other kids apply to your ED school, are you going to switch? Is the school trying to divert other students from applying to give the spot to the child of the board member or big donor?

- You will think: why should my child avoid that dream school to give the spot to other kids at his school?

- What if everyone thinks other students will apply school1 and apply to school2 instead? Then everyone will apply to school2, right? You also need to prepare the supplemental essays well in advance. Can you just switch ED schools on October 25 because you heard a dozen other kids also apply to the same school? Do you have time to prepare strong supplemental essays?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Some college needs to offer a course based on game theory of college admissions. (A paper probably exists somewhere, but I don’t have time to find it).

Game theory does not work for college admissions, unfortunately. At all. Mostly because you can't have the reasons for the outcomes so you can't judge real odds, and also because admissions are independent events from college to college. But this book is informative and helpful regarding ED, even though it's a few years old now

https://www.amazon.com/Early-Admissions-Game-Joining-chapter/dp/0674016203

A summary:

- Applying ED gives a huge bump in changes to the applicant, especially at need aware schools
- Despite this bump the advantages of ED to the school far outweigh those of the applicant
- The authors conclusion is ED is unfair (which I partially, but not totally, agree with)

It's well worth a read and there are used copies out there cheap.

Thanks. I may read, but next year - when it is less personal and more academic. For now, I may need to stick to books like Zen Shorts that help calm my nerves. Good luck to all of our kids in the crazy process.

Anonymous wrote:Some college needs to offer a course based on game theory of college admissions. (A paper probably exists somewhere, but I don’t have time to find it).

Game theory does not work for college admissions, unfortunately. At all. Mostly because you can't have the reasons for the outcomes so you can't judge real odds, and also because admissions are independent events from college to college. But this book is informative and helpful regarding ED, even though it's a few years old now

https://www.amazon.com/Early-Admissions-Game-Joining-chapter/dp/0674016203

A summary:

- Applying ED gives a huge bump in changes to the applicant, especially at need aware schools
- Despite this bump the advantages of ED to the school far outweigh those of the applicant
- The authors conclusion is ED is unfair (which I partially, but not totally, agree with)

It's well worth a read and there are used copies out there cheap.

Anonymous wrote:My kid is at a private, fwiw.

The Sidwellz example is a good reminder to myself that perhaps I am not being fair: I could see a kid who loves the open curriculum at Brown take a look at those odds and decide Amherst is a better shot, which would be a strategy.

I would love for Michael Lewis to write Moneyball 2: Elite College Admissions.

Some college needs to offer a course based on game theory of college admissions. (A paper probably exists somewhere, but I don’t have time to find it).

My kid is at a private, fwiw.

The Sidwellz example is a good reminder to myself that perhaps I am not being fair: I could see a kid who loves the open curriculum at Brown take a look at those odds and decide Amherst is a better shot, which would be a strategy.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What would be the point of strategizing to increase odds of going to school that wasn’t his first choice?

That was my thinking (and his too). But other threads mention changing ED based on other kids applying and needing to ask for recs super early to get best teachers (my kid just picked his favorite teachers) and working harder for teachers who write recs (my kid has to work hard in all his classes).

Thanks for the reassurance that our family isn’t the only ones out there thinking like this.

My kids are at top privates and that poster sounds unhinged to me. Private does sometimes provide opportunities to know the teachers better, but the machinations described don’t match our experience and seem unlikely to matter in the end,

My kids are in two different Big3 schools and i have never heard of this happening either. My kids naturally know some teachers better as they've had them for multiple classses in their areas of interest. None of this was strategic in the least.
The other poster sounds nuts. I have never encountered people like her at our schools.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What would be the point of strategizing to increase odds of going to school that wasn’t his first choice?

That was my thinking (and his too). But other threads mention changing ED based on other kids applying and needing to ask for recs super early to get best teachers (my kid just picked his favorite teachers) and working harder for teachers who write recs (my kid has to work hard in all his classes).

Thanks for the reassurance that our family isn’t the only ones out there thinking like this.

My kids are at top privates and that poster sounds unhinged to me. Private does sometimes provide opportunities to know the teachers better, but the machinations described don’t match our experience and seem unlikely to matter in the end,

+1. My DD's private (120 seniors) typically had 0 or 1 acceptance each year (out of 5-8 applicants) to a particular Ivy that offers ED. The year my DD applied to the Ivy there were 4 ED applicants and all four -- including my DD -- were accepted. And another student was accepted RD. Point is that it would be foolish not to apply to favored ED school just because other kids in your school are applying ED. There are no rules about how many kids will be accepted ED.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What would be the point of strategizing to increase odds of going to school that wasn’t his first choice?

That was my thinking (and his too). But other threads mention changing ED based on other kids applying and needing to ask for recs super early to get best teachers (my kid just picked his favorite teachers) and working harder for teachers who write recs (my kid has to work hard in all his classes).

Thanks for the reassurance that our family isn’t the only ones out there thinking like this.

My kids are at top privates and that poster sounds unhinged to me. Private does sometimes provide opportunities to know the teachers better, but the machinations described don’t match our experience and seem unlikely to matter in the end,

Anonymous wrote:I think strategy might matter more in a smaller private school where you know that the other kids applying are all legacies, for instance. In that case it might be dumb to ED there too. But whatever—run your own race.

yep, it makes sense at privates. Last year I think there were 15 kids who ED'd for Brown at Sidwell. One got in ED. Maybe 1 more got in regular decision (?) (I'm not sure exactly but it was 1 or 2).
In a typical year, Sidwell will take 2 or 3 from Sidwell (total). Probably not a great idea to ED there if there are a dozen other kids doing the same. I don't know if the kids were aware and just decided to go for it anyway.

I think strategy might matter more in a smaller private school where you know that the other kids applying are all legacies, for instance. In that case it might be dumb to ED there too. But whatever—run your own race.

Anonymous wrote:What would be the point of strategizing to increase odds of going to school that wasn’t his first choice?

That was my thinking (and his too). But other threads mention changing ED based on other kids applying and needing to ask for recs super early to get best teachers (my kid just picked his favorite teachers) and working harder for teachers who write recs (my kid has to work hard in all his classes).

Thanks for the reassurance that our family isn’t the only ones out there thinking like this.

I think anytime you're worrying about what other kids are doing, you're doing it wrong. If he like the college he wants to ED best and has a good shot at getting in, then go with it. The only person who should be worrying about the competition and what their grades and ECs are, is the admissions officer.

What would be the point of strategizing to increase odds of going to school that wasn’t his first choice?

Starting a new thread on ED/REA. Some other posts (included in threads with different topics) indicate a level of strategy for ED, including adjusting pick based on other kids applying. Did anyone’s kid do this? My kid knows that 4 other kids applied ED where he did but wouldn’t know how to compare applicants (how do kids know each other’s grades? How do you judge different activities against on another)? Also, he picked his school on a few particulars that don’t exist elsewhere (or exist at schools with lower admit rates).

My kid didn’t have a lot of strategy but rather tried to determine which college he might like best and where he would be a good fit. Getting the sense that he (and I) are incredibly naive, lol.