Anonymous
06/12/2022 16:30
Subject: Data for Progress poll: MoCo voters LOVE Biden, are fine with Elrich & Council, support Thrive
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:This poll was conducted using text messages and a website. Hard to take any of this seriously.
Texts maybe. How was the web-based poll done? Or did the text refer people to the website? Are there provisions to make sure people don’t fill out more than one survey?
The main issue is that the poll claims to be Democratic “likely voters”, not even all residents, and the polling method is skewed towards younger people. It’s hard to take seriously findings that (a) it is representative of the county as a whole and (b) it’s representative of “likely voters” considering that they skew older.
The polling questions were also odd. So all in all, not sure what it says about anything except that even using a poll that should be most favorable to Hans Riemer he still comes out behind.
It's standard to poll likely Democratic voters only. That's all who matter for the primary. I agree most voters will be older.
Democratic likely primary voters will skew older than even Democratic general election voters that still skew older.
Anonymous
06/12/2022 16:27
Subject: Data for Progress poll: MoCo voters LOVE Biden, are fine with Elrich & Council, support Thrive
Well given the alternative, I'm not surprised.
It's not that I like any of these people particularly.
But the other options were much, much worse!
Anonymous
06/12/2022 16:25
Subject: Data for Progress poll: MoCo voters LOVE Biden, are fine with Elrich & Council, support Thrive
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:This poll was conducted using text messages and a website. Hard to take any of this seriously.
Texts maybe. How was the web-based poll done? Or did the text refer people to the website? Are there provisions to make sure people don’t fill out more than one survey?
The main issue is that the poll claims to be Democratic “likely voters”, not even all residents, and the polling method is skewed towards younger people. It’s hard to take seriously findings that (a) it is representative of the county as a whole and (b) it’s representative of “likely voters” considering that they skew older.
The polling questions were also odd. So all in all, not sure what it says about anything except that even using a poll that should be most favorable to Hans Riemer he still comes out behind.
It's standard to poll likely Democratic voters only. That's all who matter for the primary. I agree most voters will be older.
Anonymous
06/12/2022 16:06
Subject: Data for Progress poll: MoCo voters LOVE Biden, are fine with Elrich & Council, support Thrive
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:This poll was conducted using text messages and a website. Hard to take any of this seriously.
Texts maybe. How was the web-based poll done? Or did the text refer people to the website? Are there provisions to make sure people don’t fill out more than one survey?
The main issue is that the poll claims to be Democratic “likely voters”, not even all residents, and the polling method is skewed towards younger people. It’s hard to take seriously findings that (a) it is representative of the county as a whole and (b) it’s representative of “likely voters” considering that they skew older.
The polling questions were also odd. So all in all, not sure what it says about anything except that even using a poll that should be most favorable to Hans Riemer he still comes out behind.
Anonymous
06/12/2022 15:51
Subject: Data for Progress poll: MoCo voters LOVE Biden, are fine with Elrich & Council, support Thrive
Anonymous wrote:This poll was conducted using text messages and a website. Hard to take any of this seriously.
Texts maybe. How was the web-based poll done? Or did the text refer people to the website? Are there provisions to make sure people don’t fill out more than one survey?
Anonymous
06/11/2022 21:27
Subject: Data for Progress poll: MoCo voters LOVE Biden, are fine with Elrich & Council, support Thrive
Anonymous
06/11/2022 10:04
Subject: Data for Progress poll: MoCo voters LOVE Biden, are fine with Elrich & Council, support Thrive
This poll was conducted using text messages and a website. Hard to take any of this seriously.
Anonymous
06/11/2022 09:54
Subject: Data for Progress poll: MoCo voters LOVE Biden, are fine with Elrich & Council, support Thrive
Anonymous wrote: That being said, 75% of voters in Montgomery County are Democrats.
60% of registered voters are Democrats, 24% no party affiliation, 15% Republican.
https://www.montgomerycountymd.gov/Elections/Resources/Files/pdfs/stats/2022/MonthlyStatMay2022.pdf
Anonymous
06/11/2022 09:48
Subject: Data for Progress poll: MoCo voters LOVE Biden, are fine with Elrich & Council, support Thrive
I received the results of a May 2022 Data for Progress poll in an email PDF (sorry, can't find the actual link so it may have been subscription-only) and found the results interesting.
Caveat: The poll covered likely Democratic primary voters in Montgomery County. That being said, 75% of voters in Montgomery County are Democrats. Unless a massive wave of Republicans choose to register as Democrats at the last minute, the results probably stand close to reality.
Noteworthy findings:
Joe Biden's approval is a whopping 83%, a net favorability of +68.
Hogan also has a high net favorability, of +32.
Now here is what will blow the DCUM minds: Both the County Executive and the County Council have net favorabilities of +34. For both, 54% selected "Very Favorable" or "Somewhat favorable."
Marc Elrich leads the polling of the County Executive candidates (33%), but with a plurality (38%) undecided. That being said, Elrich has higher favorables than Blair and Riemer. Elrich is particularly strong with African Americans (+51) and Latinos (+37).
Blair has decent net favorabilities except he is underwater with voters under 45. Elrich is neutral with voters under 45, and Riemer has the edge. Likely related to another one of the polls, which found that Thrive 2050 has net support in favor (+34). Elrich's weakest points were on housing affordability and cost of living, where he is underwater, especially with younger voters. However, those results may only be partially from the characterization by smart growth advocates of Elrich as a NIMBY, but mostly because of the actual situation on the ground: housing is unaffordable, and the cost of living is high.
Elrich has slight net favorability on crime and public safety, substantial net favorability on managing the county government, and astounding (+51) favorability on handling the coronavirus pandemic. The pandemic response especially has a markedly high favorability for Elrich among African Americans and Latinos. The same caveat however, applies with housing, whereas the voters polled may be commenting more about the general situation than Elrich himself, but who knows.
Once again, the main caveat of this poll other than its size (N=529) was that it polls likely Democratic primary voters It is well known that the Democratic primary functions as the general election in Montgomery County, so "likely voters" MAY include some center-right-leaning voters who have been registered as Democrats and vote for center-right Democrats. For actual Democratic primary results to be remarkably different from those indicated in this poll, there would need to be a HUGE wave of newly registered Democrats or "unlikely voters" who turn out to vote specifically to oust Elrich and the incumbent Council. Otherwise, it's indicative that the silent majority does not rant all the time about county politics, appreciate our overall good services and are grateful for not dying of Covid in as high numbers as other areas.
Caveat: The poll covered likely Democratic primary voters in Montgomery County. That being said, 75% of voters in Montgomery County are Democrats. Unless a massive wave of Republicans choose to register as Democrats at the last minute, the results probably stand close to reality.
Noteworthy findings:
Joe Biden's approval is a whopping 83%, a net favorability of +68.
Hogan also has a high net favorability, of +32.
Now here is what will blow the DCUM minds: Both the County Executive and the County Council have net favorabilities of +34. For both, 54% selected "Very Favorable" or "Somewhat favorable."
Marc Elrich leads the polling of the County Executive candidates (33%), but with a plurality (38%) undecided. That being said, Elrich has higher favorables than Blair and Riemer. Elrich is particularly strong with African Americans (+51) and Latinos (+37).
Blair has decent net favorabilities except he is underwater with voters under 45. Elrich is neutral with voters under 45, and Riemer has the edge. Likely related to another one of the polls, which found that Thrive 2050 has net support in favor (+34). Elrich's weakest points were on housing affordability and cost of living, where he is underwater, especially with younger voters. However, those results may only be partially from the characterization by smart growth advocates of Elrich as a NIMBY, but mostly because of the actual situation on the ground: housing is unaffordable, and the cost of living is high.
Elrich has slight net favorability on crime and public safety, substantial net favorability on managing the county government, and astounding (+51) favorability on handling the coronavirus pandemic. The pandemic response especially has a markedly high favorability for Elrich among African Americans and Latinos. The same caveat however, applies with housing, whereas the voters polled may be commenting more about the general situation than Elrich himself, but who knows.
Once again, the main caveat of this poll other than its size (N=529) was that it polls likely Democratic primary voters It is well known that the Democratic primary functions as the general election in Montgomery County, so "likely voters" MAY include some center-right-leaning voters who have been registered as Democrats and vote for center-right Democrats. For actual Democratic primary results to be remarkably different from those indicated in this poll, there would need to be a HUGE wave of newly registered Democrats or "unlikely voters" who turn out to vote specifically to oust Elrich and the incumbent Council. Otherwise, it's indicative that the silent majority does not rant all the time about county politics, appreciate our overall good services and are grateful for not dying of Covid in as high numbers as other areas.