The problem is, a centrist conservative party isn't viable unless it is pro-choice, you know, keeping consistent with minimal government intrusion into personal lives.

And that isn't going to happen as long as Evangelicals play an outsized role.

Anonymous wrote:The bigger question is...when will the "republican party" split into two. Those with a common sense/ a brain and the trumpers?

Once that happens, life will be much easier for our country...It will create a faction of psychopaths with little political power ...i hope. I would really love to know what % of self identified Rs would support Trump versus a Romney type figure.

This election is prime time to do it. I would guess that tons of Democrats or Republicans who held their nose and voted Biden would enthusiastically vote for a centrist conservative party. Trump/Biden or Harris is a no win situation

The bigger question is...when will the "republican party" split into two. Those with a common sense/ a brain and the trumpers?

Once that happens, life will be much easier for our country...It will create a faction of psychopaths with little political power ...i hope. I would really love to know what % of self identified Rs would support Trump versus a Romney type figure.

I feel Haley is too weak and wishy washy. She reminds me too much of Susan Collins. She will be "concerned" about things, but when it's time to take action, she takes a step back and fades into the background. But she would make a good puppet for whoever's pulling the strings in the GOP.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The obvious ones are Pence, Cruz, Haley, and DeSantis.

I agree on Haley and DeSantis and would add Crenshaw.

Pence is too boring (though maybe that would sway moderates) and Trump voters would never vote for him. Cruz would never win any moderates and might also have issues with the ultra pro Trump crowd

Old boring Christian conservatives like Pence are not winning a national election. They couldn’t when Ralph Reed had more sway in the Republican Party and they definitely can’t now.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Trump and DeSantis are definitely running. They will tear each other to shreads.

I could see a wealthy moderate like Romney running. Someone who can self-fund and make their case.

There's a significant contingent of Republicans who don't want Trump to run again. Focus groups have teased out that sentiment. These people will never vote for a Democrat, but they want someone less bombastic and more disciplined.

Romney has more of a chance of winning the Democrat primary. You might as well say Liz Cheney should run. A basic calculation when determining who will win the Republican nomination is to see who Bill Kristol and rich white Republicans would like, take them out of the field, and then see who’s left.

It's got to be someone rich enough to self-fund. Maybe Hogan can get there if backed by a coalition of wealthy conservatives who sat out 2020.

Hogan is a Democrats version of an ideal Republican. He has as much likelihood of winning a Republican primary as Joe Manchin or Kristen Sinema have of winning a Dem presidential primary.

2024 is going to be a strange election. Biden likely a one-termer. Zombie Trump making another run.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Trump and DeSantis are definitely running. They will tear each other to shreads.

I could see a wealthy moderate like Romney running. Someone who can self-fund and make their case.

There's a significant contingent of Republicans who don't want Trump to run again. Focus groups have teased out that sentiment. These people will never vote for a Democrat, but they want someone less bombastic and more disciplined.

Romney has more of a chance of winning the Democrat primary. You might as well say Liz Cheney should run. A basic calculation when determining who will win the Republican nomination is to see who Bill Kristol and rich white Republicans would like, take them out of the field, and then see who’s left.

It's got to be someone rich enough to self-fund. Maybe Hogan can get there if backed by a coalition of wealthy conservatives who sat out 2020.

Anonymous wrote:The obvious ones are Pence, Cruz, Haley, and DeSantis.

I agree on Haley and DeSantis and would add Crenshaw.

Pence is too boring (though maybe that would sway moderates) and Trump voters would never vote for him. Cruz would never win any moderates and might also have issues with the ultra pro Trump crowd

It will be a battle between traditional conservatives and Trumpism.

One needs the other to win. If a hogan runs, he will need to adopt Trumpism to be viable in the general election, but that will turn off traditional conservatives and independents.

Anonymous wrote:The obvious ones are Pence, Cruz, Haley, and DeSantis.

Pence and Cruz would get crushed in the general and Haley is too much of a neocon to win the primary.

Anonymous wrote:Trump and DeSantis are definitely running. They will tear each other to shreads.

I could see a wealthy moderate like Romney running. Someone who can self-fund and make their case.

There's a significant contingent of Republicans who don't want Trump to run again. Focus groups have teased out that sentiment. These people will never vote for a Democrat, but they want someone less bombastic and more disciplined.

Romney has more of a chance of winning the Democrat primary. You might as well say Liz Cheney should run. A basic calculation when determining who will win the Republican nomination is to see who Bill Kristol and rich white Republicans would like, take them out of the field, and then see who’s left.

Trump and DeSantis are definitely running. They will tear each other to shreads.

I could see a wealthy moderate like Romney running. Someone who can self-fund and make their case.

There's a significant contingent of Republicans who don't want Trump to run again. Focus groups have teased out that sentiment. These people will never vote for a Democrat, but they want someone less bombastic and more disciplined.

The obvious ones are Pence, Cruz, Haley, and DeSantis.

Besides Trump, who has the best chance at the nomination?

DeSantis is who everyone is talking about, but Youngkin and Crenshaw have a lot more charisma and would play better on a national stage. Youngkin was able to carry Virginia and has crossover appeal between classic blue blood conservatives (people who still read George Will’s columns and wear blue blazers and khakis) and the Trump wing of the party. Crenshaw is the most articulate of the three and has the best life story and the most star power. His interview with Trevor Noah really opened my eyes about how much crossover appeal he could have to conservative and moderate Dems. He also doesn’t grovel to Trump, but doesn’t distance himself from Trump’s voters either and like Youngkin plays the fence very astutely in that regard.