Anonymous
Post 01/04/2022 13:34     Subject: Market crash in 2022?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Time in market beats timing the market.

Everybody thinks they know when to buy the dips, nobody actually does.

Go play this game 100 times and let me know your scores, I bet you'll win far less than 50% of the time.

https://www.personalfinanceclub.com/time-the-market-game/


I plowed $600,000 into the market from Jan-April of 2021. As it went down, I kept buying. It required nerves of steel, but I did it.

But, I agree with your point -- time in the market does beat timing the market.


Lol @ nerve of steel. I clap you.
Anonymous
Post 01/04/2022 13:22     Subject: Market crash in 2022?
Anonymous wrote:Time in market beats timing the market.

Everybody thinks they know when to buy the dips, nobody actually does.

Go play this game 100 times and let me know your scores, I bet you'll win far less than 50% of the time.

https://www.personalfinanceclub.com/time-the-market-game/


I plowed $600,000 into the market from Jan-April of 2021. As it went down, I kept buying. It required nerves of steel, but I did it.

But, I agree with your point -- time in the market does beat timing the market.
Anonymous
Post 01/04/2022 13:20     Subject: Re:Market crash in 2022?
If you follow the logic of the chart above you wound't have bought any equities since 2012.
Anonymous
Post 01/04/2022 12:15     Subject: Market crash in 2022?
Continuing to buy through 401k and DH's PSP. Keeping some cash for alternative investments should anything interesting come up.
Anonymous
Post 01/04/2022 11:56     Subject: Market crash in 2022?
I'm going to continue to dollar cost average via paycheck contributions to my 401k and the kids' two plans, but I'm leaving this year's bonus in cash (other than $10k I already allocated to iBonds for 2022). Usually I invest my year-end bonus and quickly as I can, but this year I'm going to wait for a month and then maybe dollar cost average it into a brokerage account over the course of 2022.
Anonymous
Post 01/04/2022 11:31     Subject: Market crash in 2022?
Time in market beats timing the market.

Everybody thinks they know when to buy the dips, nobody actually does.

Go play this game 100 times and let me know your scores, I bet you'll win far less than 50% of the time.

https://www.personalfinanceclub.com/time-the-market-game/
Anonymous
Post 01/02/2022 23:51     Subject: Market crash in 2022?
Sorry, but I’m just not buying into the market right now with valuations higher than they were the peak of the dot-com bubble.


How are you coming to this conclusion?


The Buffett Indicator, or the market cap of the total stock market compared to the GDP of the country, was made famous by Warren Buffett, who said it is the best measure of stock valuations. It is currently higher than in 2000 pre-crash, and this chart doesn't even fully capture the 27% increase in the S&P that took place in 2021.



Putting up a chart does not provide the necessary economic analysis for your conclusion. Try again.


Where can I find this analysis?
Do you think stocks are fairly valued?
Anonymous
Post 01/02/2022 23:33     Subject: Market crash in 2022?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Anyone keeping dry powder to buy dips or are you minimizing cash holdings due to the high inflation? I’ve been doing the latter but am feeling nervous. I’m less than 2% in cash right now and been this way the past 18 months, everything else in index funds, real estate, crypto.


Yes, I’m loading up on cash for this scenario by: i) aggressively paying down my mortgage, and ii) loading up on iBonds (I just set up a living trust to maximize the amount that I can purchase). If/when the crash happens, I’m going to use either a HELOC or a cash-out refinance to go into the market in a big way. And with the iBonds, obviously the money is tied up for 12 months but at least it eliminates the pain of holding cash.

Sorry, but I’m just not buying into the market right now with valuations higher than they were the peak of the dot-com bubble.


How are you coming to this conclusion?


The Buffett Indicator, or the market cap of the total stock market compared to the GDP of the country, was made famous by Warren Buffett, who said it is the best measure of stock valuations. It is currently higher than in 2000 pre-crash, and this chart doesn't even fully capture the 27% increase in the S&P that took place in 2021.



Putting up a chart does not provide the necessary economic analysis for your conclusion. Try again.
Anonymous
Post 01/02/2022 22:55     Subject: Market crash in 2022?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Anyone keeping dry powder to buy dips or are you minimizing cash holdings due to the high inflation? I’ve been doing the latter but am feeling nervous. I’m less than 2% in cash right now and been this way the past 18 months, everything else in index funds, real estate, crypto.


Yes, I’m loading up on cash for this scenario by: i) aggressively paying down my mortgage, and ii) loading up on iBonds (I just set up a living trust to maximize the amount that I can purchase). If/when the crash happens, I’m going to use either a HELOC or a cash-out refinance to go into the market in a big way. And with the iBonds, obviously the money is tied up for 12 months but at least it eliminates the pain of holding cash.

Sorry, but I’m just not buying into the market right now with valuations higher than they were the peak of the dot-com bubble.


How are you coming to this conclusion?


The Buffett Indicator, or the market cap of the total stock market compared to the GDP of the country, was made famous by Warren Buffett, who said it is the best measure of stock valuations. It is currently higher than in 2000 pre-crash, and this chart doesn't even fully capture the 27% increase in the S&P that took place in 2021.

Anonymous
Post 01/02/2022 07:54     Subject: Market crash in 2022?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Anyone keeping dry powder to buy dips or are you minimizing cash holdings due to the high inflation? I’ve been doing the latter but am feeling nervous. I’m less than 2% in cash right now and been this way the past 18 months, everything else in index funds, real estate, crypto.


Yes, I’m loading up on cash for this scenario by: i) aggressively paying down my mortgage, and ii) loading up on iBonds (I just set up a living trust to maximize the amount that I can purchase). If/when the crash happens, I’m going to use either a HELOC or a cash-out refinance to go into the market in a big way. And with the iBonds, obviously the money is tied up for 12 months but at least it eliminates the pain of holding cash.

Sorry, but I’m just not buying into the market right now with valuations higher than they were the peak of the dot-com bubble.


How are you coming to this conclusion?
Anonymous
Post 01/01/2022 22:28     Subject: Market crash in 2022?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Anyone keeping dry powder to buy dips or are you minimizing cash holdings due to the high inflation? I’ve been doing the latter but am feeling nervous. I’m less than 2% in cash right now and been this way the past 18 months, everything else in index funds, real estate, crypto.


Yes, I’m loading up on cash for this scenario by: i) aggressively paying down my mortgage, and ii) loading up on iBonds (I just set up a living trust to maximize the amount that I can purchase). If/when the crash happens, I’m going to use either a HELOC or a cash-out refinance to go into the market in a big way. And with the iBonds, obviously the money is tied up for 12 months but at least it eliminates the pain of holding cash.

Sorry, but I’m just not buying into the market right now with valuations higher than they were the peak of the dot-com bubble.


What do you mean maximize the amount you can buy? Beyond 10k limit?


I bought $30,000 - $10,000 individually, $10,000 in my business and $10,000 in the new trust.


And I’m going to do the same thing again in a couple of days now that it’s 2022. So that $60,000 of iBonds for one person in a matter of weeks.
Anonymous
Post 01/01/2022 22:13     Subject: Market crash in 2022?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Anyone keeping dry powder to buy dips or are you minimizing cash holdings due to the high inflation? I’ve been doing the latter but am feeling nervous. I’m less than 2% in cash right now and been this way the past 18 months, everything else in index funds, real estate, crypto.


Yes, I’m loading up on cash for this scenario by: i) aggressively paying down my mortgage, and ii) loading up on iBonds (I just set up a living trust to maximize the amount that I can purchase). If/when the crash happens, I’m going to use either a HELOC or a cash-out refinance to go into the market in a big way. And with the iBonds, obviously the money is tied up for 12 months but at least it eliminates the pain of holding cash.

Sorry, but I’m just not buying into the market right now with valuations higher than they were the peak of the dot-com bubble.


What do you mean maximize the amount you can buy? Beyond 10k limit?


I bought $30,000 - $10,000 individually, $10,000 in my business and $10,000 in the new trust.
Anonymous
Post 01/01/2022 21:58     Subject: Market crash in 2022?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Anyone keeping dry powder to buy dips or are you minimizing cash holdings due to the high inflation? I’ve been doing the latter but am feeling nervous. I’m less than 2% in cash right now and been this way the past 18 months, everything else in index funds, real estate, crypto.


Yes, I’m loading up on cash for this scenario by: i) aggressively paying down my mortgage, and ii) loading up on iBonds (I just set up a living trust to maximize the amount that I can purchase). If/when the crash happens, I’m going to use either a HELOC or a cash-out refinance to go into the market in a big way. And with the iBonds, obviously the money is tied up for 12 months but at least it eliminates the pain of holding cash.

Sorry, but I’m just not buying into the market right now with valuations higher than they were the peak of the dot-com bubble.


What do you mean maximize the amount you can buy? Beyond 10k limit?
Anonymous
Post 01/01/2022 21:55     Subject: Market crash in 2022?
Anonymous wrote:Anyone keeping dry powder to buy dips or are you minimizing cash holdings due to the high inflation? I’ve been doing the latter but am feeling nervous. I’m less than 2% in cash right now and been this way the past 18 months, everything else in index funds, real estate, crypto.


Yes, I’m loading up on cash for this scenario by: i) aggressively paying down my mortgage, and ii) loading up on iBonds (I just set up a living trust to maximize the amount that I can purchase). If/when the crash happens, I’m going to use either a HELOC or a cash-out refinance to go into the market in a big way. And with the iBonds, obviously the money is tied up for 12 months but at least it eliminates the pain of holding cash.

Sorry, but I’m just not buying into the market right now with valuations higher than they were the peak of the dot-com bubble.
Anonymous
Post 01/01/2022 21:32     Subject: Market crash in 2022?
Anyone keeping dry powder to buy dips or are you minimizing cash holdings due to the high inflation? I’ve been doing the latter but am feeling nervous. I’m less than 2% in cash right now and been this way the past 18 months, everything else in index funds, real estate, crypto.