Race speed? Much longer.
Depends on age of child as well, but as a rule of thumb, do not expect best times in October. It is best to compare October 2021 to October 2020, of course Covid messed this up too, but that’s what the fair comparison for improvement is in normal times.
The older they are or more swimming a kid has done, the more true this is. kids who are growing a lot will improve because of size and strength. You might see best SCY times compared to last spring.