Reply to Only ~14% Of U.S. Adults Have Gotten Latest Covid-19 Vaccine Update

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Reply to "Only ~14% Of U.S. Adults Have Gotten Latest Covid-19 Vaccine Update"

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Are things still surging?  [/quote]

According to wastewater and hospital admissions, yes.

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#wastewater-surveillance

According to DCUM, no. It's just a cold.

Choose wisely![/quote]

Wastewater data suggests there's an increase, but it doesn't speak to the magnitude of the increase.

Hospitalizations suggests there's an increase, but not a surge.  Hospitalizations of patients with COVID are up 14% from last week.  But both the overall number of hospitalized patients and the sustained rate of increase are far below previous surges.[/quote]

+1.  Wastewater may reflect infections, but that doesn't equate to disease.

[/quote]

The last two winters (2022 and 2023) the peak of infections came around Jan. 15.  No reason to think it won’t be the same this winter as Covid seasonality grows more predictable.[/quote]

Right. Everybody saying "it's not as high as it has been" doesn't seem to understand there's a warning phase as things ramp up. People aren't taking it seriously, nobody masks anymore, the wastewater is already showing the levels, but it's not bad yet. And then some idiot trolls want to talk about people pointing that out and claim they're "mentally ill". No, they're just aware, in as much as anyone can be in a country that decided not to care about the impact to people so that we could prioritize corporate wants. It's hard to stay reliably informed because that would make people want things we don't want to give them (meaningful sick leave policies, funding for vaccine studies, continued coverage for Paxlovid and other treatments...)

It's not tragically awful right now. And no, trolls, nobody wants it to be. That's why people are trying to point out what's going on. Stick your head in the sand (or somewhere else) if that's what you're into, but the numbers are ramping up. The next few weeks are going to show higher numbers, hopefully not exponentially.

Some people are vaxxed, which will hopefully keep the hospitals from being overcrowded. Some people mask, which can keep the virus from finding a new host. But an awful lot of people have simply chosen to not do either anymore, because it's "too uncomfortable", or not trendy, or painful, or doesn't fit their schedule... Smart people realize this is a setup for a mess.

How messy you're content to let it be seems to depend on your perception of health/health care. The current strains seem to have a more mild effect for healthy people, but even if that's true, long covid seems to impact otherwise healthy people just fine. Disabled people sounded the alarms before Thanksgiving. Able-bodied (and for those using "mentally ill" as an insult, ableist) people are probably used to getting care when they need it and not really needing much.

Some of y'all are about to get a rude awakening.[/quote]

Even if you project two or four weeks out from current conditions, assuming current trends continue, [b]we'll still be fine.[/b] More likely, we're probably very close to whatever local peak this winter will have.[/quote]

Please measure "fine" in lives lost, assuming current trends continue. You do-nothing types are a trip.[/quote]

A very small fraction of total deaths. Or are you forgetting that people die of things other than covid, too?[/quote]

How many lives? You're "fine" with how many lives?[/quote]

Well, about 52,000 people died of the flu during the 2017-2018 season without most people batting an eye,  so that gives us a lower bound on what's broadly considered acceptable. And [b]small changes in risk generally don't have a significant impact on behavior or perception of risk, so I wouldn't expect views to start to change until an order of magnitude increase (10x) in deaths above that number.[/b] [/quote]

Wrong place to focus the behavioral economic lens being used here. In 2018 no one had ever heard of COVID-19. [b]The magnitude of the shock factors into how long it will take for sensitivity to repeats to fade.[/b][/quote]

Influenza gives us a moderately close example of an endemic public health risk that predates covid. If we accept risks of a certain magnitude and severity with the flu, why wouldn't we also accept them with covid?[/quote]

A. We’re still nowhere near flu death levels from COVID

B. See above.[/quote]

When it comes to deaths we absolutely are. In fact, if you just look at current death rates, we're very likely *below* that of the flu during a bad flu season.[/quote]

So what you're considering a "good" covid year is about what a bad flu year is?

And this is... good?
[/quote]

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