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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]
According to the NCAA ([url]https://www.ncaa.org/sports/2015/3/2/estimated-probability-of-competing-in-college-athletics.aspx[/url]), around 3.9% of high school volleyball players will compete in the NCAA, and 1.2% will go to a D1 school. There are other opportunities to play collegiately at non-NCAA programs too.  So doing a little back of the envelope math for the class of 2025 (current 17s who have been recruitable for over a year), if you look at AES, there were 132 CHRVA 16s teams last season (using last year because the number of girls playing club tends to drop off after 16s - according to AES there were only 84 17s CHRVA teams this season). Assuming an average of 12 players per team (obviously some have more and some have less and some girls don't play with the age group that aligns with their HS grad year) x 132 teams, that means there were around 1,584 girls playing club volleyball in the region from the class of 2025.  Using the NCAA percentages, there would be approximately 62 girls expected to play NCAA volleyball from CHRVA. Of those, about 19 would be expected to be D1.

Now looking at the data from PrepDig (which is probably not 100% accurate but not sure of a better source), from the class of 2025 there are currently 24 CHRVA players committed to play D1 indoor volleyball.  In terms of the club breakdown (using the club these players are currently shown as playing for), 14 are from Metro, 4 are from VA Elite, 3 are from Paramount, 1 is from MVSA, 1 is from CEVA, and 1 is from Blue Ridge. There are 4 D3 commitments shown as well, but D3 schools tend to recruit later so this is probably not at all reflective of what the final tally will be be for this class year.

So what does this data suggest?  CHRVA seems to be outperforming expectations in terms of the number of D1 commits (24 committed versus 19 expected). The breakdown of commits from CHRVA clubs is pretty lopsided with Metro having the majority of players committed to play D1. [/quote]

Unfortunately, your comparative numbers for HS to club to college are off by at least 3x.  There are many more HS volleyball teams than there are club teams, and the NCAA HS numbers also include JV and freshman teams, not just varsity.  There are 250+ in MD alone. Take two of the two most populated counties in CHRVA -- Montgomery and Fairfax.  MOCO has 29 public HS each with 2 teams (V, JV) and 48 private HS (assume ~half have V and and a smaller number have JV).  That's >100 HS teams just in Montgomery County alone. Fairfax County is roughly equivalent.  So ~200 teams in just two counties.  CHRVA covers all the way from Delaware to mid-VA and west to eastern Western VA and all of DC and MD.  I don't know the actual number, but I would bet there are easily 500+ HS teams in the CHRVA region.

500x14 (HS teams carry more players) = 7000 players

How many CHRVA region players should play in:
Play in NCAA 7000 x 3.9% = 280
Play in D1 7000 x 1.2% = 84

CHRVA is nowhere even close to those numbers, or even 1/3 of those numbers.
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