Reply to Funding for Shepherd's Renovation

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Also, some inaccuracies have been noted in Shepherd's rankings--for example, they rank enrollment as flat or negative over the past 5 years--that can't be accurate.  Enrollment has grown from about 330 to 350 in the past two years since my child has been enrolled.  Also, a PK3 class was added two years ago, and two more classes will be added next year due to demand (PK3 and 1st grade).  Demand is growing, as suggested by waitlists.  If they didn't take into account future growth projections, then the tool itself is flawed.

The variables that went into the tool are on the last page here:

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2830804-2016-Facilities-Analysis-With-Key-for-Dist.html[/quote]
What's so inaccurate?  Shepherd gets a rating of 1 in the community population growth factor.  According to the last page, that means the community population of 4-10 year olds is expected to have less than 14.7% increase.  That's certainly not flat.  The rating doesn't mean demand isn't growing; it just means it's growing slower than other areas, such as Orr Elementary where they expect the population to grow by 25-32%.  Do you have data showing there will be 15% or more increase in 4-10 year olds in the coming years in the Shepherd neighborhood?

Look, I get that it's frustrating, and I get that there's always fear of a political fix.  I also am sure there's plenty of basis to quibble with some of the ratings on the spreadsheet, or at least question where they came from.  But from where I sit, it seems this objective data-driven approach is a lot more logical than just individual council members pitching various projects, which is about as pure politics as I could imagine.  [/quote]

13:56 again.  I looked again at the spreadsheet, and I'm guessing what you're complaining about is not the 1 rating in community population growth, but rather the 3 rating Shepherd got in the "5 year average annual enrollment growth" category.  That 3 rating translates to (1.7%)-0.1% growth - basically flat as you suggest.  Is that what you're referring to?

If so, I think you should check the DCPS audited enrollment data at the links below.  It shows Shepherd with enrollment of 331 in 2011, and 330 in 2016, which fits exactly with the 3 rating.
http://osse.dc.gov/enrollment
http://osse.dc.gov/sites/default/files/dc/sites/osse/publication/attachments/Enrollment%20Audit%20Examination%20Report%202011_2012%20%282%29%5B1%5D.pdf
http://osse.dc.gov/sites/default/files/dc/sites/osse/publication/attachments/SY%202015-16%20School-by-School%20Enrollment%20Audit%20Data%20%28Updated%29.pdf[/quote]

There will be 350 (or 355) students next year.[/quote]

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