Reply to HARDY MIDDLE SCHOOL: Record numbers from feeder schools for 2014-2015

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Reply to "HARDY MIDDLE SCHOOL: Record numbers from feeder schools for 2014-2015"

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]
So my argument stands and I'll ask you in reply: if all the OOB families at Hardy were happy enough to stick with their neighborhood schools, would there be enough IB middle schoolers to keep Hardy open?  It's already under capacity and the map I linked to above doesn't show a lot of students coming out of the Georgetown/Burleith/Hillandale cluster.[/quote]

So here's the context to view that question in: DCPS currently has about 44,000 students and operates schools with an aggregate capacity of about 66,000 students. Just about every school in the system -- even Deal and Wilson, by far the two largest schools -- would be under-enrolled if everyone went to neighborhood schools, there's maybe four elementary schools in upper NW that are at capacity solely with in-boundary kids.

But that's assuming a static school population. However, it's not unreasonable to assume that improving schools would draw more kids into DCPS, both by attracting families that have stayed in DC but left DCPS, and by attracting new families to the city. According to the census, DC has about 112,000 people under the age of 18. Of them, 44,000 are in DCPS, 40,000 are in charters, and about 28,000 are either too young for school or in privates.  So there are plenty of kids in DC right now to fill every DCPS school. (What I don't know is the aggregate capacity of all the charter schools currently, plus under construction).

On top of that, currently the DC Office of Planning is predicting a baby boom in the next ten years, with a 45% increase in the school-age population of the city. If DCPS's market share merely remains constant that will basically fill all of the space currently in DCPS.[/quote]

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