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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]This paper is an interesting take on the HYPSM question, including the sub question of how to think about the HYPSM players themselves.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-024-03547-8#Sec19

The authors wanted to see where “ extreme winners” (my summary term, not theirs…think presidents, Supreme Court justices, Nobel Prize winners, F500 CEO’s, Pulitzer Prize winners, MacArthur fellows) went to school. Using data on ~ 26,000 people who have achieved remarkable across disparate fields, they find that a very small group of elite colleges have produced a huge share of these top achievers. Within that set of elite schools, Harvard seem to have a disproportionate footprint. For example, about one out of every six “extraordinary Americans” in their list went to Harvard alone.

Of course, the strong association between these schools and extraordinary outcomes does not establish causation (for example, it is possible that these individuals would have achieved extraordinarily regardless of the school they attended). And if there is causation, the precise mechanism is hard to pin down with respect to education effects vs network effects vs a possible “treatment effect that increases one’s ambitions or expectations ” by attending Harvard. But the net effect, especially for Harvard, is hard to ignore.

One note: the authors do the analysis using institutional attendance, not only undergraduate.  My read of the paper is that while undergraduate attendance at elite schools is highly represented among top achievers, graduate education at these institutions plays an even more prominent role. So, even if you didn’t win the lottery for Harvard undergrad, there’s always an opportunity to go there for graduate school, that that may be even more of a driver of outcome.
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This is why I would love for my kid to attend Harvard, although we realistic on the odds. The analogy I keep thinking about is joining a high school football team that has won the state championship for several years straight. Everyone around you expects to win. The tradition of excellence fosters a mindset that “winning is normal,” which builds your confidence and drives you to perform at a higher level.[/quote]

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