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Reply to "Assuming they are all independent separate events, the probability of receiving at least one acceptance is 33% if you ap"
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[quote=Anonymous]This is silly. The question is the likelihood of at least one acceptance among students who apply to the same 10 schools each with a 4% acceptance rate. The answer will be between 4% and 33% (OP's math). But there's nothing to narrow it down within that range. The upper bound happens when the acceptances distribute randomly across the 10 schools (the schools may as well be pulling names from a hat), the lower bound happens when all choose the same subset of students (the schools are all using the same algorithm). All an individual student can know is their personal odds are not worse if they apply to more schools. But they already knew that. [/quote]
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