Reply to Assuming they are all independent separate events, the probability of receiving at least one acceptance is 33% if you ap

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]They are not totally independent, but also not totally dependent.  But your point is taken.

The takeaway is that college admission is NOT a lottery system like some posters claimed.

If your stats puts on in the game, you want to apply to AS MANY top 20 as possible!!![/quote]

In mathematical terms, related to game theory, they are totally independent events, in that the outcome of one does not affect the outcome of another.

https://mathematicalmysteries.org/independent-and-dependent-events/

But as noted, despite that you cannot use game theory because you can’t know the starting odds of your admission the way you can know that you have a 1 in 52 chance of drawing the 8 of hearts from a full deck of cards.[/quote] The occurrence of one does affect the probability of the others also occurring. If a student is in at MIT and Harvard, there is a greater than 4% chance of them also being in at Princeton.[/quote]

What was the student’s odds at Princeton before they were accepted to MIT and Harvard?  How did they change AFTER acceptance to MIT and Harvard? (They didn’t).[/quote] before, whatever the Princeton admit rate was

After, some larger amount as the odds of getting into P conditional on having already gotten in to M or H are greater than just the odds of getting into P. Getting into universities are correlated events and therefore dependent.[/quote]

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