Reply to State report says 7 Virginia universities should be monitored as enrollment cliff approaches

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Everyone! OP is referring is to an OPINION piecd not a new article. Big difference [/quote]
Um, it’s an article about a report to the governor from an official government agency.[/quote]

No, it's not. It's Dwayne Yancy's opinion on a report for Cardinal News, a small non-profit paper that tries to cover ""the untold story of SE and S Virginia".  It says "OPINION" at the top. Always check before reading: opinion or news[/quote]

Okay?  Here is the jlarc study: https://jlarc.virginia.gov/pdfs/reports/Rpt593.pdf

The information everyone is talking about is on page 7
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Several demographic and market trends will place pressure on higher education institutions

As noted in Chapter 1, most enrollment growth has occurred at large institutions rather than smaller and regional ones. In Virginia, five large institutions (GMU, JMU, UVA, Virginia Tech, William & Mary) gained approximately 21,600 students over the past decade, while the remaining 10 institutions lost approximately 9,500 students in that same timeframe. Statewide, this is a relatively modest shift (7 percent) in market share from Virginia's smaller and regional institutions to its larger institutions. Though modest in percentage terms, this shift represents more students in total than the enrollment of several Virginia institutions.

Likely decline in future higher education enrollment could exacerbate trend of market consolidation toward larger institutions

All institutions will be affected to some degree by demographic shifts that will reduce the traditional college age population in the near future—but institutions that have lost market share recently may be especially vulnerable to further declines. Higher education enrollment is expected to begin declining in 2025, according to the U.S. Department of Education.

This expected decline in traditional college-age students will mean all institutions will be competing for fewer students. Birth rates, both nationally and in Virginia, peaked in 2007 but subsequently declined following the Great Recession. The number of high school graduates is expected to peak in 2025 and decline at least through 2032 (Figure 2-1).
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