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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Too close to call at this point.  Obama has the advantage, but it is really going to come down to turnout in a few key states. [b] I think Florida likely goes R [/b], and it comes down to the ground game in Ohio.  [/quote]

And I think you are out of touch with Florida.  My parents are lifelong Republicans who have lived in Florida for 29 years.  And they and their friends are all worried about Ryan on the Republican ticket.  The number of Floridians who rely on a a lot of butter programs for more than 50% of their basic living needs is huge.  Also, the number of Baby Boomers who are about to retire or have just  recently retired and moved down to Florida is growing steadily.

I think selecting Ryan essentially gave away Florida.  While many seniors and Floridians agree philosophically with the Republican party and ticket, many of them cannot afford to vote Republican now.[/quote]

We'll see, I guess.  If you are right, Romney is toast.  I find it hard to believe that this was not something that was exhaustively considered before the Ryan pick, as it is an obvious issue---Romney's not stupid, and unlike McCain he seems to actually want to win---but if picking Ryan costs Romney Florida it is a blunder of epic proportions.  I think there is a lot of wishful thinking in the Dem predictions on this point, though.  Should be an interesting fall.  [/quote]

I'm the PP you responded to.  One of the problems with Romney is that he is one of the first Republicans who has to wage his campaign on two fronts.  Most other candidates including John McCain really do fall in the category of not needing to woo the conservative base because the base will not vote for the Democrat.  In this case, Romney has to woo the conservative base because the conservatives will not just fall in line for Romney.  Many of them will vote by staying home and not voting at all.  Especially the Tea Party who feel strongly that their way is the only way.  They believe that supporting moderate Republicans is just as bad as supporting Democrats and will vote with their feet, even to spite their own noses.  So, in addition to needing to appeal to the independents/moderates, he also needs to shore up his support from the conservatives.  Selecting Ryan was consolidating his base and ensuring that he has the full, solid support of the growing conservative wing.  The candidates that would have helped him win the independent/moderate votes would have essentially lost a lot of the conservative Tea Party base.  He probably assured himself more votes by going with Ryan that with any other swing candidate.  The problem is these are votes that were either not going to vote or might have capitulated and voted for him anyway.  And there was no guarantee that he would swing enough votes from the independents/moderates to staunch the ebb of conservatives bailing out of the election if he had selected otherwise.  I think that Ryan was the best choice of those remaining.  Probably the only two better candidates, Rubio and Christie both publicly said they weren't interested).

So, I think it cost him Florida, but it still might have been his best choice of the options he had.[/quote]

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