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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote]Prices will not decline imho. Too many people have mortgages that are very affordable and will stay put. Or if they have to move, they will hold on the house and rent it.

We are looking into moving for a possible job change and are considering renting our house using a property management company rather than selling. After taxes, mortgage, and property fees, we would make about $20-$30K a year.

We purchased in 2008 and watched the homes in our neighborhood hold their value during the worst of the recession. Refinanced in 2020 at a 2.9% interest rate and only have about $600K mortgage on a $1.6M home in a great school district.

We will probably sell the house once we get close to retirement or if the annual profits drop below $10K for three years in a row. I can imagine that there are a lot of families in our financial position where it actually makes financial sense to hold onto a home and rent if the interest rate is low enough.
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A $20-$30K profit on an investment of 1M is not a good return. It's 2-3%. You can do better in a money market account. That said, you might have some appreciation on the house, but it also could be flat for a long time. 
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Lol, tell me you don’t understand rental real estate without telling me…you know the rest.

1). On top of the $20-$30K they’re netting in cash, the principal is also being paid down every month.

2). Since the property is now a rental, the mortgage interest is a business expense and can be fully deducted, unlike the mortgage on a primary residence due to the SALT cap.  Assuming they have a 3% interest rate on their $600,000 mortgage, that’s an extra $18,000 deduction they now get every year.

3). They will also get to claim a deduction for depreciation.  This deduction is often bigger than the mortgage interest deduction for rentals.

4). Even 2% appreciation on a $1.6 million house is $32,000 per year.

Add it all up and that’s not a bad return for a $1 million investment – and they won’t have to endure the wild swings of the stock market.  There’s a reason that real estate is the way that most wealth is accumulated in this country.

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Exactly.  All of the idiots who are saying the comparison should be an money market account were B students.  [/quote]

Real estate investors are so defensive. I did consider payment of principle in my calculations. You’re not counting the loss of the capital gains safe harbor, not considering that a single homeowner can’t deduct more than net income because they’re not in the “business of real estate,” and depreciation reduces your basis, so you get hit with higher taxes when you sell, unless you plan to die and leave the property to your kids. The PP also didn’t consider many additional costs of owning real estate (maintenance, insurance, etc). And real estate does not always appreciate.

I maintain my position, real estate is a decent investment if you are highly leveraged (pp was not — they had a million in equity) and you are in a rapidly appreciating market. That’s not anywhere right now. [/quote]

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