Reply to buying now or waiting another year?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]If you buy in the next couple of months you will be being buying at the worst possible point since 2007. If you are comfortable with that, that’s up to you, but I would ask what is so urgent that you can’t wait 6 or 12 months? The people who are telling you to buy now, that it will be fine, are realtors who have a personal financial stake in keeping the inflated market going for as long as possible. These are salespeople. Talk to a market forecaster who has nothing to gain from you losing money on a purchase. Read about what’s going on in the larger market, what the rising interest rates will do to prices, what the Fed is doing and predicting. Don’t listen to salespeople.

Incidentally, the people who said don’t buy last year were also right. People who bought in 2021 will take a financial beating too during the downturn. Just not as bad a beating as the people buying now. In a few weeks it’s expected their houses will be worth whatever it’s valuation in 2019 was. They didn’t buy at the absolute peak (which was probably last week) but they still paid a premium they won’t be able to recover anytime soon. Talk to someone in your real life who understands market behavior. Don’t take anonymous advice from a bunch of realtors on the internet.[/quote]

The notion that everyone who disagreed with your position is a realtor is as lazy as it is baseless.  It's the equivalent of suggesting that the every person promoting a doom and gloom scenario is really a frustrated buyer who is just trying to chill others from entering or continuing their house hunt in the hope that it will lessen competition so they can finally win a bidding war.  That sounds pretty silly, right?  Same thing.  This is a complicated area, and people come to different conclusions based on looking at and interpreting different data.  If the only way you can argue your position is to suggest that anyone who disagrees with it has a vested interest in the other outcome, that speaks volumes.   [/quote]

It’s true about 99% of the time that the people saying “buy now” are realtors. Because it’s insane advice unless your job is to sell houses. And the corresponding situation that you propose makes literally no sense: no one on this board is competing against other posters for a given house. People are posting about areas all over the DMV and in a huge array of price ranges. These people are not competing over the same houses. People like me, who did a deep dive into the 2007 crisis for professional reasons and as a result have some expertise are just trying to help other people understand what’s going on. I’m just trying to counter all the misinformation that’s out there, because many people don’t realize that most of what’s said on this board is just salesmanship. Like when realtors post “Amazing new house! Will sell fast” many people don’t understand that’s just an ad for the house posted by the listing agent. I’m just trying to level the informational playing field so people aren’t duped into losing money they can’t afford to lose. What they do with that information is up to them, but educating people (especially people who don’t have an extra $100,000 laying around to lose) is just basic human decency.

My other ulterior motive is trying to prevent a local housing crash by preparing people to expect a downturn but not to panic. Because that would be bad for everyone who doesn’t think a giant recession is in their personal interest right now (i.e. everyone). I’m personally only going to buy when fundamentals seem to be back at the core of pricing, and I feel tremendous relief that I didn’t buy early this year (when I was really trying) before I knew how much risk the Fed was about to inject into the market. I feel grateful to be living in a good spot for right now, especially because we require flexibility and can’t necessarily stay in one house for 10 years. Others may be in a different circumstance, but they still deserve to under the full picture of what’s happening (both on this board and in the local and National markets).

I don’t mean to be insulting or disparaging by pointing out the realtor posts. I actually super love my realtor and have nothing but respect for my realtor. If I were to buy a house right now it would partly be because of how much I like and respect my specific realtor. So it’s not about the profession, it’s about misinformation that is self interested and might cause people to make a giant financial mistake. [/quote]

[b]So…frustrated (and inexperienced) buyer. Got it.[/b]

Sigh. There must be a human being in there somewhere. Try to access the part of you that isn’t on a team, and is just a human person. I’m not a buyer, not inexperienced, and I promise you I know more about how property markets work than you do.

[/quote][/quote]

[i]“I feel tremendous relief that I didn’t buy early this year (when I was really trying)”[/i]
So you were a buyer or weren’t you?

Why do you assume you know more? Your posts read like you are clueless.

[/quote]

So “earlier this year” means… a month ago?

And why are your relieved? Prices haven’t dropped, rates have risen. Sure talk of a bubble has percolated, but in no way has your situation IMPROVED if you are still renting. [/quote]

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