Reply to Marc Elrich doesn’t think there “is demand for market housing.” He’s never going to fix our housing.

Forum Index » Metropolitan DC Local Politics

Reply to "Marc Elrich doesn’t think there “is demand for market housing.” He’s never going to fix our housing."

Subject:

Emoticons





More smilies

Text Color: Font: Close Marks

[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]

Thrive people are so tiresome. Those numbers came from market values (for recently sold SFH) and assessed values for land only in those neighborhoods, so the latter are low. But, again, where can you get an acre of land for $1 million? Stonebridge paid $31 million for less than acre on East West a few years ago. Some of us here invest in these projects, so the numbers are pretty close at hand.[/quote]

Terrific. Now, where do the numbers come from for two-unit vs one-unit replacement buildings on properties where previously only one-unit replacement buildings were allowed? From nowhere, because currently there is no such thing in Montgomery County. Which is why you have to make them up.[/quote]

I assume you’re talking about estimated sales prices now. You can get in the neighborhood by using $/SqFt for MF in the same area as a reference point and then adjust up or down based on whether you think your product will be more or less attractive to buyers than what already exists in the market. That’s exactly the process investors go through when they’re considering how to use land and whether to put a new product in the market. How else do you think it will work once areas are upzoned? Because once the law changes, those buildings still won’t exist. Investors will have to estimate until there are better comparable. [/quote]

Exactly. You're making up numbers.[/quote]

You’re the one who made up an acre for $1 million and 8 apartments for $400k each.

How do you think developers will decide what to build after the law changes? Or how a bank decides whether a loan is safe?[/quote]

No, that's a different poster. How will developers and banks decide? They will all make their own best guesses, some with more tolerance of risk, some with less, and then we will wait to see what actually happens.

Right now, what you're doing is presenting your own personal best guess as 100% guaranteed certainty, and that's just foolish.[/quote]

It’s not that close a call on the western side of the red line in my opinion so I can be very far off on the math and still be right on the outcome. The eastern side of the red line is a closer call but if I had a choice between investing on the east side and the west side, I would always choose west because it’s less risky and the returns have been about the same. [/quote]

As you say, this is your [u]opinion[/u]. If you don't want to invest in it, then don't. Nobody is going to force you to invest in anything.[/quote]

I’d be happy to see alternative scenarios based on real data that show MF probably is the most profitable use of land in areas where SF demand is highest. But I’m not persuaded by your mythical $1 million acre of land and 8 $400k units. I’d consider buying one of those $400k units and renting it out at market rate because it would have a decent cap rate. [/quote]

Why would you be happy.  You eliminate what many consider to be the American dream of a sfh in a suburban community.[/quote]

Options

	Disable HTML in this message
	Disable BB Code in this message
	Disable smilies in this message

Review message

Search Recent Topics Hottest Topics