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[quote=Anonymous][quote]Do you have a source for the European population info above? Not to call you out on it, just b/c it is interesting and I would like to read more.[/quote]

The NYTimes article cited earlier is a good start, and here is another article:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/population-paradox-europes-time-bomb-888030.html

"In Europe the last time that fertility was above replacement level was in the mid-1960s. But now, for the first time on record, birthrates in southern and eastern Europe have dropped below 1.3 – well below the 1.5 which the United Nations has marked as the crisis point. [b]If things continue the population there will be cut in half in just 45 years.[/b] In Italy, one recent survey put it at 1.2. Cities such as Milan and Bologna recorded less than 1, the lowest birthrates anywhere."

Due to the likelihood of relaxed immigration policies, I think European populations will probably not fall quite that far.  In order to maintain the necessary worker-to-pensioner ratio, tens upon tens of millions of immigrants will be required.  Some countries are more open to immigration than others, so some countries will not experience the population decline that their low birth rates would indicate.

Russia is an exceptional situation.  Their birth rate is one of the lowest in the world, around 1.2.  There are more abortions annually than births.  Their death rate is exceptionally high, due to alcoholism, suicide, STDs, depression, and drug use;  the death rate is almost twice as high as the birth rate.  There are high rates of infertility.  They are very resistant to immigration.  So their population may truly halve by 2050.

Germany is also exceptional.  Almost 30% of women born in 1960 remain childless, and almost 20% of women today said their ideal number of children is none.  Their overall population is declining by 100,000 a year.

There is also the share of world population for Europe:  in 1950, it was about 12%.  By 2050, it will be about 4%.

But the absolute numbers are less important than the composition of the population.  The proportion of old to young is reversing.  The pool of workers is shrinking.  And once demographic trends take hold, they take a very long time to reverse.  Women may possibly start having more children, but there will be fewer women to have children in the first place.

I'm sure many environmentalists welcome the fact that world population will peak this century, and then begin to decline.  But the consequences of huge populations of elderly people are rather catastrophic.[/quote]

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