Reply to maybe housing in dc isn't as expensive as everyone thinks

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Upzoning is stupid.

It won't make any difference to housing prices because there's, ahem, six million people in the suburbs and they all want better commutes.  [/quote]

!!!

They do NOT all want to be close in DC. By a long shot.

A huge number of them WORK in the suburbs.  In  Bethesda.  In Rosslyn. In Crystal City. At the Pentagon.  In Old Town Alexandria. In West Alexandria.  At Fort Belvoir.  In Tysons (over 100,000 jobs there!)   In Reston.  Near Dulles. In Ashburn.  In Suitland. In New Carrolton.

Of the people who DO commute to DC, there are lots of people who just do not like DC for one reason or another, that would not be offset if housing prices were cheaper.  And of course plenty who would move to DC for a detached SFH, but will never move into a 6 story condo building, or an ADU.  [/quote]

There's only 300,000 housing units in DC.

How many do you think can realistically be added over the next ten years? 30,000? Let's say those 30,000 units will hold 100,000 people. What's 100,000 divided by six million? 1.6 percent.

You don't think 1.6 percent of the people in the suburbs would happily move into the city?

There's so much wishful thinking behind this upzoning stuff.  [/quote]

1. Total multifamily housing construction in DC is running over 12,000 units a year.  Some of those involve some loss of existing units, so say about 10,000 net new units. And that is with all the multiple constraints on new development - height limit, floor area ratio limits, SFH only zones, parking minimums, lawsuits against PUDs, etc.  In ten years a hundred thousand units should be quite possible

2. Its not only DC adding units - so are Arlington, Alexandria, MoCo, Fairfax.

3. To get people to move who haven't already decided to (at the given rents/prices) you have to lower the rents/prices.    Please come back when you understand what a downward sloping demand curve is. [/quote]

The great hope among the density bros -- it's always 30-year old white guys pushing this -- is that increasing density will suddenly make housing prices crash and literally no one will notice except for them, and they will be able to buy a fantastic place in a fantastic neighborhood for almost nothing. There is so much wishful thinking involved. [/quote]

1. I am not a 30 something white guy

2. I am not interested in moving to the District

3.  I don't expect housing prices to crash.  I want well located (short commute, transit oriented, etc) housing to be somewhat cheaper than otherwise, and in greater supply, because that is good for the people who move in to it, its generally good for municipal tax revenues, it probably actually reduces gentrification, and its good for the environment and for reducing auto dependence.

We are winning the policy debate - in localities across the country, in some states (SB 50 did not pass in Ca, but came closer than before), Dem presidential candidates are including supply oriented housing planks in their platforms, and the entire discourse is changing.

If it comforts you to focus on ad hominems against your opponents, go for it. [/quote]

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