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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Path to a Democratic Senate.
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Of the 22 seats controlled by Republicans, just two of them are in states (Colorado and Maine) that leaned Democratic compared with the nation as a whole in a weighted average of the last two presidential elections (75% in 2016 and 25% in 2012). Today, President Trump is quite unpopular in both. Additionally, both states were very Democratic in the aggregate House vote in 2018.
Now, they certainly aren't gimmes, given that both states were within 5 points in the last presidential election. Still, Democrats have clear pickup opportunities in Colorado and Maine, for the seats now held by Sens. Cory Gardner and Susan Collins, respectively.
Therefore, you would think that Democrats were just one seat away, if things went well in Colorado and Maine.
Here's the complication: Alabama. You may recall when Democrat Doug Jones shocked political analysts and pundits by beating very flawed Republican Roy Moore in a 2017 special election. Now that seat is up again. The good news for Democrats is that Moore, who faced sexual abuse allegations and had an archconservative record, may be running again. But even if Moore won the nomination (and chances are he won't), Jones wouldn't benefit from depressed Republican turnout this time around, because Trump will be on the ballot.
Alabama is a state Trump won by nearly 30 points and remains popular in. Republicans won the aggregate House vote there in 2018 by more than 20 points. That means Jones has an uphill climb for re-election by the numbers.
In other words, even if Democrats pick up Colorado and Maine, they'd probably be looking at a net gain of one.
Beyond these seats, the Democratic pickup opportunities slim dramatically. Of the other 20 Republican-held seats up for election, 16 of them are in states that were 10 points or more Republican than the nation as a whole in a weighted average of the last two presidential elections. None of these races look competitive at this time.
The other four have leaned 5 to 10 points more Republican than the nation in a weighted average of the last two presidential elections: Arizona (Martha McSally), Georgia (David Perdue), Iowa (Joni Ernst) and North Carolina (Thom Tillis).
It's conceivable that Democrats could win in these states. They just won a Senate election in Arizona against McSally, who was appointed to her Senate seat following her defeat in the race for the other one. The statewide 2018 House votes in all these states were close. The best Republican state was Georgia, which Republicans won by less than 2 points in the aggregate House vote.
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