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[quote=Anonymous]As a parent of two college-age students going through his second application cycle, I'd like to share a few thoughts about the state of the application/admission process at the most competitive schools. I've read and researched extensively and studied available information on public results sites and common data sets and have come to these conclusions. Many if not most of you have no doubt also done your research and rexognized these things. Note: I am a strong proponent of affirmative action in admissions; my two non-diverse students both are standout academic performers both in high school and college.

First, to all well qualified 2022 applicants, all performance and extracurricular variables being equal, the admissions process is now driven to a large extent by family financial and diversity factors. Many need-blind schools' admissions offices are aware of the fact that an applicant is seeking aid but not his financial circumstances, and you should not assume they ignore this information. And at need aware schools, your financial need will definitely affect your chance of admission.

The influence of financial consideations is also reflected in the greatly enhanced xhances of ED admission. As widely reported, AOs prefer applicants who commit to paying full freight regardless of the fin aid offer. Between 2015 and today, controllong for the size of an EA applicant pool, the chances of an applicant's EA admission have risen signoficantly as the market has realized this.

Diversity policies have also greatly affected the admissions process. Economically and ethnically non-diverse students today make up a minority of enrollees at many of the most highly ranked schools. This the number of slots available to these applicants and, hence, their chances of admission, are presumably less than half of those reflected on schools' websites and in ranking service's' listings. Obviously, the same is true to an even greater extent for ethnically and economically diverse applicants. Because most schools have policies that allocate slots along these lines, students-within-these-categories' chances are also affected by the size of their own applicant pool.

Given the very large and growing number of applications schools receive, the result of these realities is that the admissions process is now not simply competitive, but little more than a lottery for the majority of highly qualified applicants. Indeed, the top institutions oftten publicly state that many if not most of their applicants are well qualified academically.

So what are an applicant's chances? For those EA applicants with truly exceptional skills and diversity hooks, probably good. For the rest, no better than 3 percent on a good day. Another way of stating this is "next to zero."

I mention these conclusions because I see so many hopeful applicants on these CC threads ask for their chances and receive answers (guesses) based on their scores and grades. As much as these factors should be primary determinants, they are only a small part of the picture. For good reasons, many with lower stats will have preference depending on financial, diversity status, application track and other factors.

It seems the only way around this problem is to apply to more - and several less competitive - schools, and accept that your chance of admission to the top schools is far less than advertized. This situation is resulting in an application nuclear arms race that only a very few will win. I suggest that college counselors aggressively advise the vast majority of students that it is not worth,applying to the Ivies and other similarly competitive schools, except as a throwaway, and that in any event their chances of admission are virtually nil. Hopefully this will result in more realistic student expectations and a greater likelihood of satisfaction with the schools to which they are ultimately admitted.[/quote]

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