Reply to Where will my Shepherd Elem kid go to middle/high school?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][
I'm not so sure about this. Shepherd Park is still attracting a lot of high SES AA families.  PK4 is still majority AA by quite a bit.

The biggest potential demographics change would probably come if the apartment building proposed for Georgia & Eastern gets constructed and opens up a whole bunch of spots for in-boundary renters. But I'm not sure which way that would swing the demographics, honestly.[/quote]
Shepherd Park is attracting higher SES families irrespective of their racial demographic, but the fact that it's higher SES means it will trend whiter just like every other gentrifying neighborhood in DC.

The idea that AA families will rent apartments in an apartment building that is still the in proposal stage and swing it towards one HS or another suggests that I need to be selling you something.  Because I'd like some easy money and you'll buy anything.[/quote]
Well, considering the original question was about something that's 8 years away, I don't think it's so crazy.

I'd challenge the idea that Shepherd Park is "gentrifying." It's been a high SES neighborhood forever. It may be getting younger, which may mean whiter in the context of DC's recent migration patterns, but I don't think the SES is changing all that substantially (which is my indicator of gentrification).

I also don't think the notion that the apt building is the main potential catalyst for any demographics change at the school. That's based on considering that:
1) SP is pretty small to begin with
2) It has a decent sized Orthodox population that generally goes to Jewish schools
3) Lots of houses are multi-generational, meaning that turnover is pretty limited
4) The housing stock is generally good and pricey

The apt building (which btw, I'm supportive of) is really the only thing that I think could change the school demographics considerably, as it removes all of the typical high SES barriers to entry. I think you'll see higher inbound population numbers for the school as a result of the more families sticking out public schools in DC, and seeking out certainty from the lottery all the way through MS and HS.[/quote]

Low turnover only means aging in place.  The menopausal ladies aren't sending any PreKers into Shepherd elementary.  So either the white newcomers will fill up the school or else their proximal neighbors will via the OOB process.  Either way the optics of eliminating Shepherd will only get easier.

The non-existent apartment coalition for rights to Wilson will never matter to anybody other than realtors.[/quote]

Well all of my menopausal neighbors (primarily AA) have grandkids that live with them and they are still going to Shepherd. Shepherd will not change as much as some are indicating. The 12 home sales per year are not concentrated to one age of kid. What change you are seeing now is from people that have already lived in the neighborhood 3-10+ years and have decided to leave their OOB or charter school and give Shepherd a shot. Many of those (including myself) are AA.[/quote]

I'm in Colonial Village and my neighbors are selling their homes to their kids who have kids.  The folks in my neighborhood don' t need to gentrify, they already have money.  [/quote]

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