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[quote=Anonymous]Ooops:

[quote][i]
The two scenarios we examined—deporting 1.3 million or 8.3 million unauthorized immigrant workers—both cause lower US employment and real GDP through 2040 than otherwise. They also push US inflation higher through 2028.

The deportations would shrink the economy largely by reducing the number of potential workers and their demand for goods and services. This is consistent with research by Michael Clemens’ finding that immigrants create jobs for other workers. [b]Removing immigrants reduces jobs for those remaining workers.[/b]

The potential US labor force would decline from the baseline by either 0.8 percent or 5.1 percent in 2028 depending on the program. This labor supply shock would cause employment (hours worked) to decline by either 1.1 percent or 6.7 percent, respectively, from baseline in 2028 (figure 4).
….

US real GDP declines from baseline by 1.2 or 7.4 percent by 2028 but has little effect on the economic output or employment of other countries. The negative effect on other countries of a decline in US demand for exports from these countries is offset by the stimulus in other countries from the relocation of capital from the US to these economies.

[b]Given annual baseline GDP growth of 1.9 percent, deporting 8.3 million workers implies that the level, or dollar value, of US GDP in 2028 will be almost unchanged from that in 2024—meaning no US net economic growth occurs over the second Trump term because of this policy alone.[/b][/i][/quote]

This whole paper from the PIIE is excellent:

https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2024/how-much-would-trumps-plans-deportations-tariffs-and-fed-damage-us[/quote]

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