Reply to Base Schools Sending Most Students to TJ

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Carson in Herndon: 88
Frost in Fairfax: 21
Hughes in Reston: 18
Jackson in Falls Church: 13
Kilmer in Vienna: 38
Lake Braddock in Burke: 20
Longfellow in Falls Church: 66
Rocky Run in Chantilly: 45
Twain in Alexandria: 12
http://patch.com/virginia/mclean/which-middle-schools-sent-most-students-thomas-jefferson-hs-science-and-technology-0[/quote]

I'm not saying that Carson and Longfellow aren't sending a lot of kids to TJ, but these raw statistics over-credit the feeder schools that are large and under-credit the schools that have a smaller AAP program.  Twain has 100 AAP kids per grade.  They have 12 at TJ.  Other MS on this list have 200-400 students per AAP grade.  Of course, they are going to have more.  The defining statistic would be the percent of kids admitted.  That's the fair comparison.[/quote]

So by your logic, Carson, w/400 AAP kids/grade should send 48 kids to TJ. Last year, they sent almost twice that. [/quote]

There is no "should" involved here.... in my logic, genius.  It's simple statistics.  If there are 400 AAP kids in a grade at Carson, and 88 were admitted to TJ, then the admit rate is 88/400 = 22%.  If there are only 100 kids in an AAP grade at Twain or wherever, and they had 12 kids admitted, then the admit rate is 12%.

22% vs. 12% is significantly different than comparing 88 to 12.  The former allows a legitimate comparison on the number of kids getting into TJ.  The latter makes it look like Carson is 7 times better at getting kids admitted.  Not true.  Hughes had 18 kids admitted, but they also have about 100 kids in each AAP grade.  So their rate is roughly 18%.  Compare that to Carson(22%) --- a lot closer than the raw numbers would suggest.  [/quote]

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