Reply to Fairness of Common Lottery?

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Reply to "Fairness of Common Lottery?"

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]
Nooooo, under the "separate lotteries for each school within the common lottery" idea if you rank the school #1, you still have a better waitlist number for your #1 than anyone who ranked it lower.  So first off, NO you do NOT have the equivalent of the worst number in the lottery, not by a longshot.  Also, if you put safeties down that won't have a ton of people ranking it #1 (which happens now as well), you enter a separate lottery for everyone who ranked that school say #6, and it's entirely possible that if the people who ranked it higher don't chose it, you could still get in.  That doesn't change from one system to another.
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You still either get in or you don't, and if you don't get in you're screwed. If you're going to order the waitlist by ranking, if you don't get into your #1 it's going to be very hard to get into your #2, you're behind everyone who put it #1, and for each subsequent pick it gets harder and harder.  Not getting your #1 is still tantamount to getting the last number in the lottery, you just have to wait until after the waitlist runs to learn that you're screwed.
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You're right, I still don't get it.  Because at the end of the day under the model I'm suggesting, the same finite number of spots at popular schools is filled, but it's filled with a higher number of people who ranked each school #1.  And you still haven't explained why that isn't better, even if the person who puts "super popular school A" as #1 get shut out if they don't get in, at least overall more popular schools are filled with people who ranked that school #1.  Because each school lottery begins with placing those who ranked each school #1.  It's still the same number of spots, but an even higher % of #1 ranked choices are matched.

How is that not true?[/quote]

Because most people will not be ranking schools according to their true preferences.  Most will be ranking schools strategically to minimize their odds of being shut out completely.  As a result, people with viable options outside of the lottery, and who can thus take the risk of being shut out, are the most likely to win spots at coveted schools.   Second, risk-averse people will employ a multi-year strategy for getting into coveted schools.  They will first lottery into a safety school and, having secured a spot, will then lottery for a spot at coveted year after year until they get in or give up.

The "September Shuffle" will turn into the "Middle School Shuffle" (and perhaps the "PK to 3rd Grade Shuffle") as people lock in their safety schools and slowly reveal their true preferences over a period of years.       [/quote]

Pp, you are 100 percent right. Schools would not be able to build a sense of community because there would be huge "trade up" churn. This wouldn't be good for schools or kids. And only rich families with decent in bounds options would be able to afford a long shot bet. So Yu Ying and Mundo Verde PK3 and PK4 would be filled with kids from Nw and other rich areas. Kids from poorer areas would filter in in K through second grade and have a harder time catching up with their richer peers. [/quote]

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