Reply to Assuming they are all independent separate events, the probability of receiving at least one acceptance is 33% if you ap

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Two or three of you in this topic understand both the math and social science aspects of probability estimates. If you guys had usernames, I'd single you out.[/quote]

This one (04/06/2025 06:00) correctly highlighted the difference between dependent and independent events. But I have not seen anyone point out the fact that game theory cannot work because the people in the selection pool do not have equal chances of being selected.

Applications are read and the selection of any candidate for any particular school is a curated event. Selection is deterministic based on the reading of an application; [b]it is not random[/b]. Game theory does not work in this instance.[/quote]

Yes, I feel like this is what OP is missing. OP’s math only works if admissions are all random lotteries of applicants. [/quote]Certainly the exact probability may be lower or higher than 4%.[b] But if a students scores are in the top 50% for a colleges accepted students,  and they check most of the boxes,  it would be a reasonable estimate to assume at least half (2%).[/b]
[/quote]

No, it would NOT be. You have no idea if that student's chances are 0%.  Multiple posters have told you this.

I guess it needs to be repeated again - you can't use game theory without knowing the actual odds.  It does not work and is a TERRIBLE way to design an application strategy.[/quote]Why would the students chances be 0% if their scores are in top 25% of accepted students and check most or all the boxes?

[/quote]

A variety of possibilities. Sometimes an admissions office has a list of high schools that they aren’t accepting from that year. [b]Not to mention that “all of the boxes” can vary over the course of an admissions season, and the day an application is read and the person reading it can make the difference between a chance and no chance[/b].[/quote]that makes it more  random, not less[/quote]
Yes sir or ma'am.[/quote]

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