Reply to Assuming they are all independent separate events, the probability of receiving at least one acceptance is 33% if you ap

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Look at it another way. Do you really think that an applicant those stats are in the top 25% of accepted applicants to T20 and checks most boxes, has less than a coin flip chance (55% assuming 4% at each) of getting into at least one of the T20, assuming they apply to all 20?[/quote]

You have no idea what that person’s odds are of getting into a top 20 college is the fn point. No formula can tell you.

If it were as simple as you make it, advisors would tell kids “You don’t need reach-match-safety, just apply to all top 20 and you’ll likely get into one!”

They don’t do that.  Why do you think that is?[/quote]Because even applying to all top 20, assuming 4%, it is still basically a coin flip. But the odds of getting into one when applying to all 20 are significantly better than applying to 10.[/quote]

You are contradicting yourself.  Is it a “coin flip” or are the odds significantly better?

Assuming you used “coin flip” to not mean 50-50 but rather that it is an unknown quantity.[/quote]

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