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[quote=Anonymous]OP: I think no one will really know about how to advise for next year until all results are out and until waitlists move some, for the population you're talking about here. (As you likely know, you really need to filter out the responses here from the braggarts and the belittlers.) This year has been bonkers and unpredictable, especially for accomplished but not showstopper kids, and the number of applications are WAY up and deferrals and waitlists common for schools that might have been safeties previously.

This next application cycle will involve changing demographics (fewer students applying because of the "demographic cliff) but also more small colleges closing. We also have NO idea how the current administration will affect colleges at large. Universities are a big enemy right now and financial aid is up in the air, as the news will readily show. So even with this year's information, next year will be different, and the best any of us can do is not put too much reliance on any one single place of information and to come back to some of the basics. Big school or smaller? Rural or urban or college town? Part of the country where the kid would be interested in living (or not). Within those parameters, you and DC can better identify the range of places that might be good shots.

There's a good thread on what folks would have done differently. https://www.dcurbanmom.com/jforum/posts/list/1253386.page
A few things I would have done--really paid attention to the college counselor's advice on schools NOT because those were good choices for our DC but because it should have given me a clearer warning that she wasn't going to be much help and was working from knowledge that didn't have much relevance in this time and place (and that was at a fancy private school in the DMV; we should have hired an outside college counselor, much as I hated the idea at the time and still do). I also underestimated how important the numbers are--especially test scores, and that will be all the more the case with more schools moving away from test optional, but that really matter .

Lastly, reiterating my notes about filtering above, I think many parents here in the DMV who don't overcontrol the process and their kids' lives aren't as present here on DCUM. There are generous folks here (including those with high achievers), and so listen mostly to them. In-person conversations with fellow parents and friends who have seen their kids through the college admissions process can be just the level-headedness that you need in times of overwhelm.   [/quote]

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