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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]In an effort to put some actual numbers to this, I took a look at the Enrollment Audit and Enrollments by DCPS Boundary data. It's hard to port all that into the typing field here, but here are my conclusions.

1) Distress signal is clearly evident in the form of declining preschool and 5th and 6th grade waitlists at all campuses over the past 5 or so years.

2) Total LEA enrollment has been pretty stable right around 1000. SY22-23 was a high point at 1052, SY23-24 was 1028. Seems like the change is driven by the middle school.

3) The first year of not having full 5th grade classes was SY23-24. I guess that was the year the trend of shorter 5th grade waitlists made the class actually not fill up.

4) TR4th continues to draw a stable population from JO (60-70), [b]LT (high teens), Peabody (high teens), [/b]Miner, Langley, Langdon, Wheatley, and Browne. So I'm not sure the idea of declining interest in 4th St from nearby Hill schools really holds up. Perhaps it's becoming more and more preschoolers shut out of their IB Hill schools rather than elementary schoolers choosing TR, I don't know. TRY draw from nearby schools is also pretty stable or increasing, with the exception of a dropoff from Miner. Middle school draw from EH and SH is also stable, SH enrollees actually increased from 15 to 21 in the most recent year.  Note-- for this data set, the most recent year available is SY22-23.

Obviously there's a lot of analysis you could do comparing TR with the nearby schools and the various trends and changes that are impacting them as well. It's a complex data set with a lot of factors that need to be accounted for. But I hope this sheds a little light. I think what's happened with TR is a sad waste and really disappointing, but clearly it does continue to draw students from a wide range and I don't think it's anywhere near closing.

[/quote]

The problem for TR is that bolded used to send 2-3x more. There was a time within the last 10 years that people would have chosen TR over LT 9/10 times. That trend has reversed. One expects the same trend with re-opened JOW. The problem for TR is the high SES kids from LT and JOW are the lifeblood of that school.

Your "analysis" on total enrollment is flawed. Whether they can fill a class is a REALLY low bar and the wrong question. The question is re-enrollment. Those numbers have been trending down for many years. People are getting out earlier and earlier. [/quote]

Well, I'm not sure, the DME data only goes back to SY16-17 on that point. Looking at SY16-17 for TR4th, it's 32 for JOW (so actually less than now), 21 for Miner, 16 for Ludlow-Taylor, 13 for Peabody/Watkins. So either it isn't that different or there's more subtlety that I'm not picking up, having to do with age or SES of students perhaps. Please feel free to provide your own analysis if you have any different read of the data.

It's hard to do a good comparison that far back because of the opening of Young campus and the shift of the middle school grades from 4th to Young. I do believe people are getting out of TR earlier (as I said above), but I don't have data to support the assertion. And then there's external factors like the slow but real improvement of Stuart-Hobson and Eliot-Hine.

I think all of the data points are important. Certain re-enrollment is important, certainly waitlist length is important. But not filling up a grade is a very clear turning point as well, and it has a budget impact that is really important. It's kind of a next tier distress signal.[/quote]

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