Reply to MOCO - County Wide Upzoning, Everywhere

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]There is zero chance that MoCo will not lose its taxpaying and upper income citizens because of this change.  What is even stupid is that MoCo has plenty of underutilized commercial land that can be converted to housing of multiple types.  Much of that land will never be office or retail.[/quote]

I think that they are ok with that.  What they lose in quality they plan to make up for in volume.[/quote]

How so?  [b]More volume of poverty and social needs[/b] who take more in tax expenditures then they can possibly pay in tax is a net negative.  MoCo is going the way of Baltimore where they mane it extremely difficult to do business and drive out everyone with means who actually make up the bulk of the tax base.  The area will crumble when all of the taxpayers who can pay taxes leave.  You cannot make up tax revenues from a $250k household by bringing in 5 $50k households to replace.  The $50k households will barely pay tax and require all sorts of subsidies, vouchers for lunches and will likely pay $0 in income taxes after all of the write offs and deductions.  The county will get more poor with more volume, because the volume is going to come from poverty and low income households. [/quote]

The family moving into a duplex or triplex is not living in poverty.  Those homes will still cost around 500K minimum.  They will pay taxes, or the landlord will pay taxes.[/quote]

No, they’ll be rentals.  Property tax doesn’t cover the same as income taxes.  A single multiplex property tax will not make up for [b]4 below poverty line families[/b] who will all get stuffed into there and who’ll pay $0 income taxes because of their low inc9me and who’ll need more in tax expenditures than they pay.

You also think all of these multiplexes are going to be high quality. lol. We all know they’ll be cheap garbage flips or the units will have properties that are barely taken care of.  It will just bring low income to good neighborhoods and ruin everything.  I cannot wait until this stupendously backfires on the county and they panic as their budgets get blown up after there is mass exodus of high tax paying citizens.  [/quote]

Why in the world do you think these people would be below the poverty line and not paying income taxes?[/quote]

You are really stupid if you think all of these dense units are going to be bought and owned by higher income families.  They’re going to be bought up by slum lords, conglomerates, and investment funds who have zero motivation to maintain the properties because their entire goal is to minimize expenditures on property maintenance. They’re going to rent them out to low income masses.  [/quote]

So I'll set aside the unnecessary insult for a second...

We're both making educated guesses here, but I think it is unlikely that a "slum lord" is going to by one single family lot in Bethesda as a huge money-making endeavor.  I think it is more likely that a developer will buy it and build a mid-range duplex, and then sell it or rent it to a young family as a starter home.

I think the math points in this direction- Even the land will be expensive.  You can't buy a piece of land worth 500K, take on the cost of demolition and build, and then rent it out for 1K per month and expect a profit any time soon, even if that translates to 4K per month.[/quote]

This is very simple.  SFH owners want SFH neighborhoods.  SFH owners generally have choices.  SFH owners tend to be in higher income tax brackets than others.  At Federal level, for 2022, top 1% paid 45% of all Federal income taxes, top 5% paid 65%, top 10% 75%, top 25% 89%, top 50% 97, and bottom 50% 3%.  There is little chance that 2 lower income families living in a duplex will offset the income taxes paid by the higher income family living in that former SFH.  And MoCo will have increased its costs in providing services to those 2 families.  And, no, property taxes will not cover the costs.  The fact is that MoCo makes money on upper income families.  MoCo loses money on, perhaps, 50% of its residents.  Driving them upper income taxpayers out of MoCo is a financial loser.

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