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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I’m confused by all of the CH and other folks outside of Ward 3 who say they are inclined to send their children to McArthur in the next few years.  Do they believe that McArthur will not be filled with in-boundary students and thus will have seats to fill in the lottery with out-of-boundary enrollment?  Or am I missing something?[/quote]

Many families are OOB via elementary Deal and Hardy feeders. Not confusing at all. [/quote]

Yes, I understand that for next school year (2023-2024), when not all seats at the new, untested McArthur are filled by in-boundary students.  I’m asking about future years!  Folks on this thread from Cap Hill (and other non-boundary neighborhoods) make it seem like they are already planning to get an OOB seat at McArthur in future years.  I wonder why they seem to think there will be any OOB lottery seats available for any year following the next.[/quote]

They are just desperate.  You are correct that there will likely not be OOB seats in a few years if things does go well for school.  Will have to wait and see.
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Honestly, all OSSE and DCPCSB projections are a massive fall-off in junior high enrollments in the next few years because there is a decline in fertility and people have left DC b/c remote work. Kids who are young elementary now will be able to go anywhere for high school. [/quote]

I'm not sure that enrollment at the Hardy feeders backs up that assertion.[/quote]

Nor the enrollment at Deal feeders. I would love to actually see these OSSE/DCPCSB "projections," though I'm guess they're figments of PP's imagination.[/quote]

For the intellectual lazy like you and yours:  :oops: https://www.dcpolicycenter.org/publications/enrollment-decline/[/quote]

Did you actually read that? First off, it's entirely focused on the two worst years of the pandemic, which is now more or less over and has been for some time. Secondly, everything in there says that the Ward 3 enrollment numbers are, at worst, stable.

"While enrollment District-wide continues to change, it is difficult to project how these changes will manifest across different wards. As of yet, the distribution of students living and attending school across D.C. has not changed greatly during the pandemic." That's an actual line from the summary of the study. Nowhere does it describe this "massive fall-off" that you're so breathlessly hoping for.[/quote]

Reading is fundamental - and not your strong suit:

Half of this loss is driven by declining births—which will continue to depress pre-kindergarten and elementary enrollment in future years. This loss can largely be made up if retention returns to pre-pandemic levels (that is, if families who left return to D.C. and return to public schools). But to keep growing at historical rates and compensate for the 2.3 percent annual decrease in births, retention ratios must increase by 2.1 percentage points a year. D.C. has not seen such retention ratios for more than a decade.

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Cool, tell me how it goes trying to get your OOB kids into Deal, Wilson or eventually MacArthur.[/quote]

It's not rocket science. If you have a kid in early elementary, because of declining enrollments/fertility, the projections are that there will be LESS demand and MORE seats for MS over the next 5-10 years. It will this be EASIER to get into Hardy, and therefore, easier to get into Macarthur. This is similar to the argument that the mayor/deputy mayor made about overcrowding at Deal/J-R. They will alleviate some of the crowding now at a minimal level, and declining enrollment/fertility will reduce overcrowding long-term. [/quote]

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