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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Agreed! But this is gonna be the only way to get any kind of increase. Pay compression will not be dealt with until GS 15 step 1 is the same as step 10. [b]At the current rate—that’s 6 years from now.[/b] [/quote]
Not quite.  It depends on what you think of as the "current rate," but GS15/1 probably won't hit the cap for at least another 20 years or so.

The pay compression is due to locality pay adjustments—GS gets them, SES (and thus the cap) doesn't.  So when the pay increase includes a locality pay adjustment, the cap creeps down the GS scale by that much.  In 2011, GS15/1 in DC was $123,758 and the cap (at GS15/9) was $155,500—about 25.6% above GS15/1.  In 2021, those numbers are $144,128 and $172,500 (now at GS15/7, and 19.7% above GS15/1), respectively.  After ten years, GS15/1 is about 6% closer to the cap than it was in 2011.  At that rate, it would take over 30 years for GS15/1 to make up the other 19.7%.

But several of the past 10 years had no pay increases at all, and three of those that did (2014, 2015, 2021) had no locality adjustment.  No locality adjustment means no pay compression: SES and GS get the same increase.  But even looking at the five years from 2016-2020 when there were locality pay increases, the average for DC was about 1%—which would put GS15/1 at the cap in about 20 years.

Frankly, I doubt that congress will care about GS salary compression at all.  They're more likely (but still not very likely, IMO) to decide that SES needs a bump to attract top managers.  That would have the side effect of fixing the compression issue at the top of the GS scale, but it wouldn't be the main factor behind a change, if it ever changes at all.  [/quote]

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