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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][guardian][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]If my kid has to wait until summer to find out, he’s going to lose his mind. He assumed he would hear shortly after May 3rd if any of the waitlists are going to move.

I can’t imagine they would move at the Ivys or next tier schools anyway. [/quote]

Why do you think the Ivys won't move? Not disagreeing necessarily, but curious. I ask because applications at all Ivys are way up (presumably more kids applied to all Ivys this year). I'd expect that alone might lead to more waitlist movement.  Full disclosure, could be wishful thinking on my part as my kid waits.[/quote]

Not to mention the kids who are admitted to multiple Ivies -- they can only go to one and have to reject the others. Add to that the donut hole kids who get in but have to full pay and decide to take a full scholarship elsewhere.[/quote]

Because all the schools admit more than the number they hope will enroll, knowing that some will accept other places. It’s not like they have 900 spots and they admit 900 kids and if 50 go elsewhere they suddenly have 50 spots to fill with WL kids.

They will only take off the WL if they miscalculated the number of people from their admits that they think will say yes. And I think they probably did a pretty decent job, even with all that’s going on.[/quote]
My DC was admitted to one Ivy and waitlisted at a few others. Just out of curiosity, I ran the numbers on the schools he was waitlisted at, taking into consideration the number of ED/REA admits, RD offers made, [b]past RD yield (using the lowest recent rates),[/b] target class size, and deferrals from last year. Based on this data, all the waitlist schools will be oversubscribed by 100+ spots (in some cases, 200+), so highly unlikely to go to the waitlist.  [/quote]

Wow you are intense. Does your DC care about these stats?[/quote]
He doesn't care about the stats, of course, but he was curious if there was much of a chance the other schools would go to their waitlist, as I would guess most waitlisted kids wonder. He asked me if I could tell from what the schools had done in the past. I crunch numbers for my job, so this was really easy for me to do. Trust me, if you knew me IRL, you wouldn't think I was intense![/quote]

After listening to several podcasts with AO, I think your assumption that the RD yield will be the same as in recent years MAY be a mistake. With so many more applications sent per person this year, yield is hard to predict. The AOs said they are using the WL rather than risk having too many admits. [/quote]
I hope you're right, but the RD yield rate I used was generally around 40%. I just don't see enough students this year getting multiple offers from the Ivies to push the yield rate much lower. And, if the students they pull from the waitlist are similar to those who turned the school down, my kid -- a completely unhooked kid from the DMV -- probably doesn't have a chance. I haven't heard of too many  unhooked kids from around here having multiple Ivy admits. Also, if you look closely at the wording of some of the Ivies' announcements about this year's admissions, they said they would "admit" a full class despite the large number of deferrals last year, not enroll one. They have all the deferred kids to fill in any spaces left open from a low yield. Again, I hope you're right that low yield rates will cause the Ivies+ to go to their waitlists. I'm really just trying to manage expectations here. [/quote]

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