Reply to Lee HS Enrollment Falls Below 1700

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Gatehouse insider here. Lee is projecting to be around ~1400 in a few years.

I also have an update about the IB East Center Middle (Key) and High (Lee). I have a few new facts confirmed and can tell you some unknowns.

1. The feeders will be the following pyramids: Edison, West Springfield, Hayfield, South County, Annandale, West Potomac, and Mount Vernon. IB would leave Mount Vernon, Edison and Annandale. So, it's going to be a large part of the eastern/southern part of the county.

2. Facilities is supposed to come up with a budget for the boundary study. There was a preliminary rough study.

[i]3. Politically, there is one SB who loves the idea because they do not like the amount of IB programs. One SB members hates this. And others are either indifferent or oppose it because they'd rather the county push funding the Western FX high school.[/i]

4. Even with the changes, Lee is tracking to run into accreditation issues due to its ESOL learners. They shouldn't have defunded that damn night school.

5. It's going to be a lottery like HB Woodlawn. Each pyramid will get a set amount of seats with a waitlist.

6. They are following a model that was used by a different district that consolidated its IB programs (after attempting to dispatch them to poor performing schools). The district who did this saw a 100 percent capacity demand and has a large wait-list for the program. It requires students from middle school to commit to the program/diploma and students who aren't on track have to return to their base schools. It is extremely popular.[/quote]

And this is why this is all a pipe dream.  Unless and until Lee loses accreditation, I wouldn’t get my hopes up for any significant change.  [/quote]

I will repeat myself. Lee is tracking to go under state oversight very, very quickly with the new testing requirements and the dumb decision to close the night school. The county is not sitting on its hands and waiting for this to happen. Actually work is being done, meetings are occurring and lobbying (pro and against) is happening. You can say it's not going to happen but don't be surprised if it does and it's done in a quick fashion. This is inside baseball.

Another point, the head of IB wants this and the super is agnostic because he won't publicly commit to any sort of change until he spends at least a year here.[/quote]

I'd imagine Tom Wilson would be a fan of this.  Elizabeth Schultz normally would be expected to dislike IB, but her kids go to Robinson plus her West Springfield constituents will complain when their boundaries change to pick up parts of Lee.

The key to make this happen lies in the staff making a persuasive argument to Scott Brabrand and the School Board along the following lines:

1) Without something like this, Lee's enrollment will continue to decline and the school's accreditation will be at risk;

2) It makes no sense to continue to spend extra money on so many under-enrolled IB programs in that part of the county;

3) Magnet IB programs - unlike the mess they've created in SE Fairfax - can and do succeed (see Richard Montgomery in MCPS);

4) It is not equitable to accept the continued concentration of poverty at Lee when nearby schools like West Springfield have much lower ESOL/FARMS rates;

5) Restoring AP to Annandale, Edison, and Mount Vernon will stem the flow of pupil placements out of those schools to other schools such as Woodson and West Potomac; and

6) This is an opportunity to rebrand Lee and get rid of the Confederate name that many in the county and region find offensive.

The biggest challenge is that it puts two magnets - TJHSST and Lee IB - is the same part of the county, when other parts of the county have their own needs.   [/quote]

Insider here. Basically, this is the state of play. What people don't understand is that it isn't just the drop in population, it is the drop in population mix. Also, the drop-out issue is a big deal. Both of these things are driving the activity.

And you're right about 6. The biggest question people have run into is why there is yet another east county magnet when west county is bursting at the seams. From what I know there is going to be some horse trading. My guess: Western Fairfax high school is going to get funding. Lee will close and be recommissioned as a regional IB center. Both will happen at the same time.[/quote]

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