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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I posted this in another chat and am placing it here in case it might be helpful. I will add that [b]the goal of closing schools is to help avoid that big spike in cases at the beginning and to flatten that curve. If the spike occurs, hospitals get overwhelmed, more health-care providers get ill, and hospitals might be forced to make difficult decisions on who receives care and who does not.[/b] This is happening in Italy. We would be about 1-2 weeks behind Italy in terms of potentially seeing that spike. Understandably, closing schools and taking other social-distancing measures are severe actions and affect people differently. But I think people might prepare for this possibility, regardless of whether they believe it’s a good or bad idea, and if you’re in the position to do so, try to help those who aren’t able to do so. For example, we have volunteered to be a “buddy” of an older lady who lives alone.

“In addition to the examples overseas that others have highlighted, some studies have suggested that school closings can help reduce the severity of an epidemic. There were studies after the H1N1 outbreaks that suggested that school closings by Mexico were successful. Another study by the Clinical Infectious Diseases journal compared two Texas communities during the H1N1 epidemic. One closed schools and the other didn’t. There were more visits to the hospital for the community where schools stayed open.

As for the 1918-19 influenza pandemic, University of Michigan Medical School’s Center for the History of Medicine researchers found that closing schools earlier and for longer was helpful in saving lives. In fact, it may have helped account for some of the differences in cities’ deaths. Researchers often compare St. Louis, which took drastic actions that many complained about, with Philadelphia, which didn’t act early and had a far worse outcome. In the book that I am reading about that pandemic, it’s interesting that you can see some of the same arguments that are being made today.

A few caveats. It’s not clear what the exact timing and duration should be. Also, the school closings were often in conjunction with other social distancing actions. Lastly, I read one article where someone brought up the point that younger healthy kids aren’t as affected by the coronavirus, though I would say there’s still a question of their role in transmission of the virus and, of course, there are children (and other family members) who are more vulnerable.”[/quote]

[img]https://miro.medium.com/max/670/1*PZesaMfoPxgYJBoQVtpmjQ.gif[/img][/quote]

Yes. 100%

People need to realize we are all f*cked if the spike happens.  Inconvenience now to prevent many more deaths.

A matter of waiting 2 weeks to act on closures/quarantines was disastrous in places during the 1918 epidemic and, btw, this is much worse and spreads easier because such a long time of transmission asymptomatically.[/quote]

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