Reply to "Opening up" means risking your life

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]

So let’s look at the green curve for precautions (precautions are undefined, but let’s ignore that). The blue shaded area to the right is slightly larger than the white area to the left under the green curve. The area on the left represents new cases that resulted in 50,000 deaths in a month. So the blue area represents another 50,000 deaths as a cost of opening up before we get a cure (or whatever “0” means in that graph).

Frankly, that graph is bs. We have no cure. So the green line shouldn’t be going to zero. It should be flatlining at some death rate above zero. Meaning a constant level of additional deaths. Nobody, but nobody, knows how long that green line stays positive. [/quote]

The point is to avoid the spike or a double wave or multiple waves.[/quote]

That figure is agnostic about a double wave, it doesn't try to incorporate it. It presumes there's a steady decline in new cases after we hit the first peak.

Hey, I can draw a steady slope down from a single peak.

Or hey, I can draw a decline followed by another spike/second wave due to early opening.

I can draw whatever I want.

See how that works? 
[/quote]

I do forecasting for a living.

A graph that doesn't specify time is useless. Of course COVID will go to zero at some point in the future. But you need to show whether that's in six months or six years in order to be able to say anything about whether deaths will exceed the 50,000 we've already seen.

A graph that's based on a potentially wrong assumption is equally useless. This graph simply asserts somebody's wishful thinking about how there will be no second wave. But many actual models incorporate and numerous variables (when do we reopen, do people respect social distancing, when do we find a cure) and project there could be a second wave under various circumstances.

Don't give us somebody's doodle. Give us a graph from an actual model that incorporates multiple scenarios (not somebody's wishful thinking) and an an actual timeline. Then we can talk.  [/quote]

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