Reply to "Opening up" means risking your life

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Reply to ""Opening up" means risking your life"

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]

So let’s look at the green curve for precautions (precautions are undefined, but let’s ignore that). The blue shaded area to the right is slightly larger than the white area to the left under the green curve. The area on the left represents new cases that resulted in 50,000 deaths in a month. So the blue area represents another 50,000 deaths as a cost of opening up before we get a cure (or whatever “0” means in that graph).

Frankly, that graph is bs. We have no cure. So the green line shouldn’t be going to zero. It should be flatlining at some death rate above zero. Meaning a constant level of additional deaths. Nobody, but nobody, knows how long that green line stays positive. [/quote]

The point is to avoid the spike or a double wave or multiple waves.[/quote]

That figure is agnostic about a double wave, it doesn't try to incorporate it. It presumes there's a steady decline in new cases after we hit the first peak.

Hey, I can draw a steady slope down from a single peak.

Or hey, I can draw a decline followed by another spike/second wave due to early opening.

I can draw whatever I want.

See how that works? 
[/quote]

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