Reply to "Opening up" means risking your life

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]this sums it up

[twitter]https://twitter.com/antoinehasday/status/1253658762419884041/photo/1[/twitter][/quote]

So let’s look at the green curve for precautions (precautions are undefined, but let’s ignore that). The blue shaded area to the right is slightly larger than the white area to the left under the green curve. The area on the left represents new cases that resulted in 50,000 deaths in a month. So the blue area represents another 50,000 deaths as a cost of opening up before we get a cure (or whatever “0” means in that graph).

Frankly, that graph is bs. We have no cure. So the green line shouldn’t be going to zero. It should be flatlining at some death rate above zero. Meaning a constant level of additional deaths. Nobody, but nobody, knows how long that green line stays positive. [/quote]

Looks like it’ll stay positive for a real omg time.  Best to stay home for around 18 months per Dr. Emanuel’s recommendation.  [/quote]

PP here. The point is, we don't know where the green line will flatline (at what rate of new cases and deaths) and for how long (until we get a cure or a vaccine). If we all get microchipped and tracked (not advocating for that), then the green line settles in at a lower steady rate until we find a cure. If people get lax about social distancing and hand washing, then the green line starts to rise again.

But it will not be zero, like this figure shows, until we get a cure or a vaccine. [/quote]

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