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Reply to "Harris beating Trump in Iowa"
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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Yes, Selzer was way off. Yes, this is a massive indictment of her methodology which worked very well for decades. It was disappointing for me because I had really hoped she was right. But to her credit, she put work out there honestly. There are other pollsters that did this as well (NYTimes/Siena for example) and did much better, but far too many pollsters are just manipulating their data to come up with the result that matches what the other polls are saying. Polls of 700-1,000 people aren't supposed to all be within 1-2 points of each other. At a certain point the polls just become educated guesses by the pollsters rather than actual data. Selzer deserves credit for being honest and allowing her work to be held accountable. It's a message that her methodology (RDD) doesn't work anymore. And that's a good thing to know.[/quote] BS. She never released her cross tabs even when asked, given the attention this poll received. [/quote]
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