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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I think the main questions at this point:

[b]-can Tester hold off Sheehy[/b]
-Does the Puerto Rican and Haitian Vote impact the Florida Senate vote
-Can Osborne pull it off in NE
-Any chance Allred pulls off the Texas Miracle?

The rest of the Dems, IMO, will hold on.[/quote]

Unfortunately it is unlikely that Tester will be reelected.  I have a good college friend who has been a political campaign manager.  He has a friend who is running the Tester campaign and my friend went out last week to support his friend.  He was doing campaign office work and even spent some time canvassing and doing other work to help his friend manage the campaign.  His friend said internal polling showed that Tester was not doing well, even with traditional support groups.  His friend even told him before going out that the campaign was not doing well enough and if he wanted to change plans to go and support another campaign, he should consider that.  My friend still went to Montana and helped the Tester campaign.  I haven't spoken to him since he returned, so I don't have an update, but two weeks ago, things were not looking good on the internal front.[/quote]

Sheehy has a few unforced errors and the broader MAGA issue may still manifest. I get it that he is in trouble, but no one knows how "conservative" women, even in states like Montana, are going to vote.[/quote]

The Montana ballot has a separate state amendment about abortion as a separate voting line item.  Given that voters
and women voters can vote on the separate abortion amendment I think it is not as relevant to the senate or presidential choices.

The bigger issue by far for Montanans is the economy.  Montanans are hard, hard workers but Californians have been buying up housing ever since Covid making housing costs unaffordable for local born and raised Montanans. There is a lot of poverty in Montana and families struggling to pay the bills.

Given the fact that Tester has been in office forever and is heavily aligned with Schumer I think Sheehy will take it due to people looking for change and a better economy.[/quote]

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