Reply to Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable

Forum Index » Political Discussion

Reply to "Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable "

Subject:

Emoticons





More smilies

Text Color: Font: Close Marks

[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I'm not sure why Putin supporters still believe that it is possible to "win" in Ukraine?  True, Putin can possibly kill many Ukrainians, but I believe he's sealed the fate of Russia.  Let me explain why.

"Why are many Russians freezing in their homes this winter?"
https://www.dw.com/en/why-are-many-russians-freezing-in-their-homes-this-winter/a-68025856

"Russia Maps Show 25% of Moscow Without Power Amid Winter Freeze 'Emergency'"
"On January 4, a heating main burst at the Klimovsk Specialized Ammunition Plant in the town of Podolsk, which is around 30 miles south of central Moscow. Since then, tens of thousands of Russians are reported to have no heating in their homes in the Moscow region amid subzero temperatures."
"Affected areas include the cities of Khimki, Balashikha, Lobnya, Lyubertsy, Podolsk, Chekhov, Naro-Fominsk, and Podolsk"
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-maps-moscow-power-outage-heat-winter-freeze-emergency-1859079

"On the same day the temperature reached -21 degrees Celsius outside, Kazimir Belev's heating stopped working."
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-01-21/freezing-russians-make-plea-to-vladimir-putin-after-heating-fail/103323062

"It turned out that the problem is much bigger than in previous cases,"
"Two large districts of the city with a population of over a million people were left without heating."
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-01-21/freezing-russians-make-plea-to-vladimir-putin-after-heating-fail/103323062

Note that this is occurring in SOUTHERN Russia.

It's strange that the Kremlin or Putin still believes a 'win' in Ukraine will somehow change this situation and all infrastructure will be magically fixed across all of Russia overnight?  I don't think they understand.  The uneducated troops they conscripted who built and maintained Russian infrastructure are most likely dead in a Ukrainian field.  This is why spy-thugs like Putin makes poor financial decisions.  Even a military person would know that logistics are the most important part of long-term warfare.

Remember the egg issue?  Russians tend not to be big vegetarians. 2/5 say vegetarianism is unhealthy https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2018/08/03/two-in-five-russians-say-vegetarianism-is-unhealthy-survey-a62435.  Eggs are the primary staple protein of pensioners unable to afford meat.

I believe that Russia is falling out of Mass Formation Psychosis around Putin and the War in Ukraine.  I believe there is a type of desensitization, a numbness, that occurs when people have clung to a belief that has been shattered, and they're unable to build their reality around the lies.  They just stop.  There's no fear.  No concern.  No anxiety.  Nothing.

Putin's FSB has clamped the lid down on protest and dissension.  It's sealed shut, without a pressure valve.  If the State is unable to provide heat in winter, affordable food on tables, security against crime; it ceases to be recognized as an authority.  The more governance systems that fail (food supply, heat in winter, etc.), the less control the Kremlin has over the country.

[b]Remember I said an 18-month process would start in January that I didn't think Putin could stop? [/b] I believe that's what's happening in Russia.  Anarchy is defined as "a state of disorder due to absence or nonrecognition of authority or other controlling systems."  I believe that the path towards Anarchy in Russia has begun.[/quote]
For pps like you it would be easier to track who said what and when if you signed a name on your posts. Not like sign in or anything, just nom de plume yourself at the end of your post. I’d be kind of interested in what you said but I’m not going to go wading through…[/quote]

The 18 month prediction is based primarily upon several factors that do not seem sustainable much past one year.
- Economic inflation and bank rate increases
- Increase in "accidents" and infrastructure crises within Russia's borders
- Rate of shrinking Sovereign Wealth Fund and the nature of it's composition change
- Rate of casualty loss of Russian military
- The number of conscripted males and it's affect upon the ability of Russia to maintain itself based upon population density
- The tenor change in Russian propaganda
- The rate that China (who has been buffering Russia's currency so some extent) is being dragged down
- Changes in key security, military, political personnel
- Assassinations and 'suicides' of key personnel and businesspeople
- the number of Russian troop deaths should impact at least 1 out of every 10 Russians
- the change in conscription methods (ex. the St. Petersburg new years' bus)

You can read the prior posts about all of these.

Here's another prediction for you.

Russia's current tactic is to exhaust Ukrainian front line troops with endless human waves (quantity versus quality) to make the Ukrainian troops either too exhausted or for them to run out of ammunition.  This tactic could work, given that US funding has been halted by the Republicans and Biden unwilling to compromise on the border; however human toll is predictable.

"Russia Loses 960 Troops, 124 Vehicles, 51 Artillery Systems in a Day"
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-troops-ukraine-war-casualty-update-1863108

Not sure if you recall, but this is nearly four times the loss rate of Russian troops just a few weeks ago and nearly ten times the loss rate a few months ago.

"Russia's 'meat wave' assaults leave frozen corpses uncollected as Russian soldiers 'just go and die,'"
https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-meat-wave-assaults-leave-frozen-bodies-avdiivka-ukraine-soldier-2024-1

During winter, this is less of an issue, but towards the end of March.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9f3ekMqo4hg[/youtube][/quote]

Good commentary.

Also:   Notice several large fires in Russia recently?  Immigrant workers are setting them in protest.

Russia’s government blackmails big companies to pay a “tax” in bodies to send to the front in the “Storm Z” battalions.  These battalions are essentially untrained human-wave cannon-fodder.

The companies confiscate all the passports of immigrant-workers.  Then, on a given date, they order them all outside, where military busses are waiting to take them to forward bases, just before deployment.[/quote]

Options

	Disable HTML in this message
	Disable BB Code in this message
	Disable smilies in this message

Review message

Search Recent Topics Hottest Topics