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Reply to "Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable "
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[quote=Anonymous]My guess is that Russians are stirring both the the Houthi and Palestinian pots to keep "the West" occupied and funnel Ukraine aid away as a distraction. I doubt it will impact the way the Kremlin thinks it will, because it won't fix this: "The amount of assets that can be easily liquidated under Russia's National Wellbeing Fund fell from 8.9 trillion rubles, or $100.4 billion, to 5 trillion rubles [about USD$55B] in the two years from January 2022 — the month before the invasion — to December 2023" "the national wealth fund's total holdings tumbled 12% over the same period" https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/russia-has-burned-through-almost-half-of-the-liquid-reserves-in-its-national-wealth-fund-as-it-bleeds-money-amid-the-war-in-ukraine/ar-AA1n9SdM?ocid=social-peregrine Why is Russia's National Wealth Fund important? "Support was also provided from the NWF to Russian banks, making the NWF a “lender of last resort” to banks" "One of the fund's main responsibilities is to support the Russian pension system, and since the closure of the Reserve Fund also funds budget deficits." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_National_Wealth_Fund 41.8 million pensioners are paid an average of 19,300 roubles (USD$236); or 806 billion roubles (about USD$8.9 billion) annually, and remember that there are currently only about 55B in the kitty. Although that, superficially seems like Russia can hold out for another six years, since half the fund was burned in only two years, the economists see a different trajectory. "the fund's liquid assets will be sufficient for a maximum of two more years." https://newsrnd.com/news/2024-01-19-russia-is-burning-its-money-in-the-ukraine-war---sovereign-wealth-funds-will-remain-liquid-for-another-two-years.rkbBzAhvt6.html "the National Wealth Fund (NWF) has no more euros in its accounts" “The proceeds were credited to ... the federal budget in order to finance its deficit. As a result of these conversion operations, a zero balance was formed on the euro account in the Bank of Russia.” "Currently, the Fund has only rubles, gold and yuan." https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/russian-national-wealth-fund-has-no-more-euros-in-its-accounts/3111705 What does this mean? Basically the Yuan is the de facto secondary currency of Russia. But isn't that a great deal for China? Not especially, since China also needs western currency to keep it's economy afloat, and now there's a competing source of Yuan on currency exchanges. Of course, Russia is part of BRICS and has been off-loading oil on India and China. Russia still needs Saudi Arabia to join, so it can dump loads of worthless Roubles in exchange for Saudi petrodollars. "Saudi Arabia Still Considering BRICS Membership" "The bloc also invited UAE, Egypt, Iran, Ethiopia and Argentina." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FZnlIAwSujE "Moscow respects Argentina's decision not to join BRICS" https://tass.com/politics/1734785 Without Saudi Arabia to offload some of it's sinking currency to, Russia should be able to let China absorb some of its economy woes, which I'm sure will make Xi even more popular with the bankers. "Two state-owned Chinese banks are severing ties with Russian clients" https://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-banks-sever-ties-russian-clients-xi-putin-partnership-report-2024-1[/quote]
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