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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]How can any sane person vote for Herschel Walker? He sounds like a in idiot.[/quote]

He has CTE from his previous football career.  He's been hit in the head far too many times.

I think that the Democrats are likely going to grow their lead in the Senate to a true majority.  Of 14 Democrats that are up for reelection, only Warnock (GA) and Kelly (AZ) are at risk.  The more Walker talks and campaigns, the worse his numbers are.  The fact is that when they kept him as the mute football hero face of the campaign, he was popular and did well in the polls.  Once he had to actually talk to reporters and voters, he's revealed that he's not all there and his numbers have been steadily downward trending.  He's now significantly behind in polling.  I don't see anything on the horizon that will turn around Walker's numbers because he is almost pitiable.

Kelly's advantage is that he is able to actually campaign for November against the GOP.  The GOP has not consolidated around a single candidate yet and they are still fighting each other for the nom and will continue until the Aug 2 primary.  Kelly already has nearly 9 times the amount of the closest GOP candidate (Masters).  And Masters is going to have to spend some of that to fend off the other primary candidates.  By the time the primary is over, Kelly will have about 12+ times the amount that the GOP candidate will have (if that is Masters, anyone else, Kelly will have more than 20x the war chest).   Kelly can flood the airways, media, social media, and Internet with his message and overwhelm the message from the GOP candidate.  Despite the national sentiment, I think that Kelly will retain his seat.  If it wasn't for the current atmosphere, then I think Kelly would sail to reelection.  The current anti-Democratic feel is what makes this a toss-up, but I don't think it will be enough to unseat him.

On the Republican side there are 20 seats up for reelection and 4 in danger, some significantly.

Fetterman is likely going to beat Oz and it probably won't be close.  Fetterman's carpetbagger attacks on Oz are the icing on the cake.  The fact is that Pennsylvanians will not say it, but they will not elect a Muslim to office, especially one with no elected office experience and one that has never really lived in Pennsylvania.  Oz is a New Jersey transplant and Pennsylvanians are very much insider types.  Oz is most definitely an outsider.  It was fortunate for Fetterman.  McCormick would have been much harder for Fetterman to beat.

Vance got a big bump from the Trump endorsement, but Ryan is a popular known quantity.  He has been reelected 9 times and served 10 terms as US Congressman.  He is liked in Ohio.  Vance, on the other hand, has only been an Ohio resident for 5 years and has no political background.  Ohio is not really a state that prides itself on outsiders.  They like reelecting known quantities.  See Boehner, Brown, Portman, all long-time serving Congressman/Senators.  Ryan is definitely in the stronger position.

Ron Johnson of Wisconsin is another bat-sh*t crazy GOP candidate.  He's even crazier than Trumpers, which is saying a lot.  The strongest candidate in the Democratic field is current Lt Governor Mandela Barnes; primary is August 9.  In polling last month, Barnes polled +2 against Johnson in a potential matchup.  Johnson has a negative approval rating at home, so is very vulnerable.

I think it is likely that Democrats lose at most one seat and will pick up 3 for a net +2 in the Senate.[/quote]

Not sure you can discount NV quite yet.  Laxalt is one of the few non-crazy candidates in swing states that the Rs are putting up this round.  I think Cortez-Masto will pull it out, but it is not a gimme.

My prediction is that Ds hold all current seats, and pick up PA and WI while the Rs hold OH.  [/quote]

Interesting.  I'll give you that Cortez-Masto is vulnerable.  But I think that Democrats are more likely to pick up OH than WI.  Vance's numbers have been sinking pretty steadily since the primary and Ryan is popular in Ohio.  I think Vance is going to have to work very hard to turn his numbers around.  Ryan is a known quantity and Ohioans like known quantities (like I said, look at Beohner, Brown and Portman).  Once they trust someone, they trust them.  Ryan does not have to work to keep his numbers steady.  Vance has to work just to keep his numbers from falling, let alone turn them around and make them rise.  That's going to be hard.  He's already used his nuclear option, getting Trump's backing.  So he needs something else to convince Ohio that he really has something to offer besides another book deal.[/quote]

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