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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I don't see any evidence to support this possible scenario, but I'm curious what others think: is there a chance that Putin actually wants to draw NATO into Ukraine in order to ignite a broader conflict? Perhaps, so far, he has been fighting with one arm behind his back, and he will only swing with both fists once NATO forces enter Ukraine. Additionally, with NATO deployed in Ukraine, is there a risk that China would then enter the conflict, fighting alongside of Russia? 
[/quote]

Putin absolutely wants to draw NATO in so he can strengthen his domestic position within Russia. The "woe is us, NATO is so mean to Russia" narrative plays very well domestically but he really can't deploy that narrative effectively when Russia is just shelling civilians in the Ukraine.

China absolutely will NOT put boots on the ground to fight alongside Russians. Their best case scenario is to sit back and watch Russia and the Western democracies destroy each other.  [/quote]

I think your logic makes sense. If Putin draws NATO into the war, it will galvanize the Russian population, and perhaps, he hopes, mask the fact that the Russians are indeed the bad guys in this conflict.

[b]Conversely, if NATO remains on the sidelines, then, ultimately, there is a possibility that an ever-larger percentage of the Russian population will break free from the propaganda and develop an understanding of the horrible truth[/b]. And that would potentially lead to the downfall of Putin.

The only way a stable outcome can be achieved, I think, is if Putin is removed from power and a benign regime takes over. If Putin remains in power, any post-war "peace" will be quite tense -- perhaps similar to the tension that exists on the Korean peninsula, with two diametrically opposed societies on opposite sides of a lengthy, highly militarized border.  [/quote]

Or, the longer this drags on, then more Russian soldiers will die in Ukraine, enraging their families and increasing their support to cause destruction in Ukraine.  [/quote]

Russia does not have that many young people to spare.  This is not 1914, nor is it 1939 for Russia:

[img]https://images.populationpyramid.net/capture/?selector=%23pyramid-share-container&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.populationpyramid.net/russian-federation/2020/%3Fshare%3Dtrue[/img][/quote]

And now, they have even fewer.

On the positive side, they've lost so much military equipment and used so many munitions, lost so many planes and vehicles that they could have a boom in defense manufacturing, when this is over.  [/quote]

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