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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I started another thread about how bad these tariffs will be, but Jeff shut it down because of this one. But I'll rephrase my question:

How bad is it?

This analysis (https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/where-we-stand-fiscal-economic-and-distributional-effects-all-us-tariffs-enacted-2025-through-april)

suggests ~2T in revenue (after adjusting for retaliations and internal accommodations) and a corresponding decrease of 2-5000 in purchasing power, that is highly regressive. US GDP will be down by ~100B per year permanently and growth will be down by about 0.5 pp. Independent of whether it leads to a small increase in US manufacturing base or Congress passes further regressive tax cuts, how large is it in real terms? Is it as bad as "Biden inflation" or worse? [/quote]

You can’t build a manufacturing base on uncertainty. The reason we lost our manufacturing base is because post WWII was a unique moment (global destruction that did not affect the U.S.) that was never going to last forever. Biden tried to fix it and his industrial policy might have helped the U.S. compete in green economy. Any manufacturing that it created will be done by robots and highly educated tech workers to keep them running and improving. So the premise of Trump’s tariffs are deeply flawed.

Biden’s inflation will look like a tiny blip in comparison. It was a tough 24 months after a disruptive global pandemic. Trump’s tariffs will bring high inflation and kill employment. Buckle up buttercup. [/quote]

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