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Reply to "Trump tariffs: ruin U.S. economy until 2040"
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[quote=Anonymous]I started another thread about how bad these tariffs will be, but Jeff shut it down because of this one. But I'll rephrase my question: How bad is it? This analysis (https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/where-we-stand-fiscal-economic-and-distributional-effects-all-us-tariffs-enacted-2025-through-april) suggests ~2T in revenue (after adjusting for retaliations and internal accommodations) and a corresponding decrease of 2-5000 in purchasing power, that is highly regressive. US GDP will be down by ~100B per year permanently and growth will be down by about 0.5 pp. Independent of whether it leads to a small increase in US manufacturing base or Congress passes further regressive tax cuts, how large is it in real terms? Is it as bad as "Biden inflation" or worse? [/quote]
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