Reply to What is the End Game in Ukraine?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]End game =

Use 40 million Ukrainians to grind down 140 million Russians to half the population.

Ideally we want to keep Putin throwing men and resources into Russia but short of nuclear war.

Keep this cooking for a decade plus.

And then in 2030, Russia and Ukraine are so destroyed and poor that western firms and countries can rebuild And gain assets for cheap [/quote]

I don't think this is a likely scenario anymore.  It was a month ago, but not now.  Whatever happens I think will happen in the next 5 months. The fuse has already been lit by Putin himself.

If Russia destabilizes (becoming more and more likely), all it will do is open the door for China.  Russia will most likely sell (from corrupt officials) all the high-tech weapons and technology it can.  This will fuel Chinese nationalism - the result of which is likely Russia becoming a puppet state of China (if it does not turn to the West).  That would be almost as bad as a scenario as nuclear war.

Ironically enough, in my gut I always felt (rightly or wrongly), at least a third or half of Russia's nuclear arsenal was always targeted at China, not the West.  Russia always knew that the U.S. could not launch an effective land war against them and vis versa.  The logistics were just too insurmountable.  It was the classic American vs British issue during the American Revolutionary War.  The British were higher tech, just too far away.

There is a saying - the only thing the Chinese Government fears is the Chinese people.  Far-right Chinese nationalists I think are even more crazy than far-right Russian nationalists.  If you thought the Russian's are brainwashed, try a farmer who believes the urine of a small child will bring vigor back to grandma.  Far right Chinese nationalists have also had an expansionist bent to their propaganda, imho.  I don't think they would be content with just making money in a peaceful world.  Russia has a lot of land.  Russia in turmoil makes a great future investment for anyone who needs leg room.

Does the Russian government know this already?  I have to assume so.  
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